Peace in the Box!


When it gets too turbulent with playing children, parents like to bang on the table and end the tumult with a saying. In a similar vein, politicians in Europe have put an end to the light touch of uncertainty about the stability of the eu-rozone. The sentix Euro Break-up Index is falling to just 5.77%.

"Now it's time for peace in the box" shout parents in Germany when they want to let their kids know that things have become a bit too loud and violent again. But nobody really knows exactly who or what is meant by “the box”. This is currently different in the euro zone. Here, too, it seems that the politicians responsible have become a little too insecure, at any rate, the "box" in the euro zone has a volume of more than 1.5 trillion euros. And peace is. And just like small children, the markets follow the well-meaning but specific words of their "parents". The sentix Euro Break-up Index falls to 5.77%, only slightly above its all-time low of 5.2% in November 2019.

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Euro area Overall index and sub-index Italy

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Euro area Overall index and sub-index Italy

The sub-index for Italy, the country with the highest probability of exit according to the sentix Euro Break-up Index, also falls significantly to 3.8%. It remains to be hoped that politicians in Europe will fare better than most parents and that the "wild little ones" will not start to run riot again soon.


The sentix Euro Breakup Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Breakup Index can be found on

This month’s reading of 5.8% means that currently, this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012 and touched its low at 5.205% in November, 2019.

The current poll in which more than 1.000 institutional and retail investors participated was conducted from July 23rd to July 25th, 2020.

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