sentix Survey Essentials (English)

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    sentix Survey results (48-2022)

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    04.12.22
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    Inglorious bias development

    The development in the strategic bias should be seen as a harbinger of a latent willingness to sell. Recently, investors have reduced their underinvestment and allowed themselves to be lured into the market by the price recovery. This can be observed not only in German equities, but is a broad-based phenomenon. “Buying without real conviction" could become a problem for the stock markets by the turn of the year at the latest.

    Further results:

    • Equities: First signs of overconfidence
    • FX: Yen story gains contour, EUR/USD is limited
    • sentix economic index: Monday, 05th Dec. 2022 at 10:30h CET

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    sentix Survey results (47-2022)

    Uploaded:
    27.11.22
    File Size:
    994 KB

    Change of preference in 2023?

    In 2022, a major rethink took place in the investor camp. The significant rise in interest rates over the course of the year has contributed significantly to this. Bonds are now considered much more attractive than equities at the strategic level. So far, however, this is only moderately reflected in the relative performance of equities to bonds. For 2023, however, this change in preference could still have an effect.

    Further results

    • Equities: High TD values slow down
    • Bonds: Basic confidence remains intact
    • FX: Yen bias buckles again
    • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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    sentix Survey results (46-2022)

    Uploaded:
    20.11.22
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Letting off steam after the sentiment pulse

    After the annual high in sentiment for U.S. stocks to the previous week there is now "letting off steam". The data had already signaled that a consolidation is likely. Now the focus is on whether a continuation of momentum can succeed. So far, the sentiment data are developing in an exemplary manner, but the bias is losing momentum again. Internationally, there are major differences. The whole thing is still on shaky ground. The situation on the bond market is different.

    Further results

    • Equities: China increasingly convincing
    • Bonds: Long investment horizon, positive bias
    • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

  • pdf.png

    sentix Survey results (45-2022)

    Uploaded:
    13.11.22
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    973 KB

    Mood impulses across the board

    The past week brought a number of sentiment boosts, including for equities: Sentiment improves impulsively, marking new highs for the year. At the same time, medium-term confidence improves. The movement suggests that this sentiment impulse is tantamount to a kind of liberation blow, which holds out the prospect of further price gains in the coming weeks. However, one should not expect too much in the short term. The high TD index limits the movement in the next 2 weeks.

    Further results

    • Equities: Historically strong bias increase for China equities
    • Bonds: US bonds pick up
    • sentix sector sentiment

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    sentix Survey results (44-2022)

    Uploaded:
    06.11.22
    File Size:
    855 KB

    Mixed picture - especially internationally

    Europe's stock markets have recently been able to make up ground, while the U.S. stock markets look battered. In both cases, lethargy remains a conspicuous element in the equity bias. Currency developments are likely to be to blame for the difference in market reaction. The U.S. dollar is losing favor with investors, especially against the Japanese yen. For the first time since Jan 2021, the bias has fallen below the zero line. There is movement at the currency level.

    Further results

    • Bonds: All-time low in overconfidence
    • FX: Movement comes in
    • sentix economix index: Monday, 07th Nov. 2022 at 10:30h CET

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    sentix Survey results (43-2022)

    Uploaded:
    30.10.22
    File Size:
    1 MB

    China exasperation

    Sentiment on the stock market continues to recover, as it does for bonds. After a long time, fixed-interest securities are being given greater consideration in portfolios. At the same time, the equity bias remains weak, and fundamental confidence is languishing. Surprisingly, equity quotas are being built up despite these reservations. The China complex is conspicuous: there is a clear disenchantment with China equities. Precious metals stand out positively. The currency side could help.

    Further results

    • Bonds: A drumbeat on the bond market
    • Precious metals: Better times ahead
    • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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    sentix Survey results (42-2022)

    Uploaded:
    23.10.22
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Seasonal factors support

    A month ago we took a look at the seasonality of the US equity market after the September futures drop. So far, the US market has followed this pattern. A very friendly phase should lie ahead according to this analogy. The US election cycle is heading in the same direction. From the sentix data, the outlook is not so bullish. Things look better for the bond markets.

    Further results

    • Bonds: Marked buy signals
    • FX: US dollar strength should come to an end
    • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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    sentix Survey results (41-2022)

    Uploaded:
    16.10.22
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Sentiment rises, bias remains weak

    After very poor investor sentiment and defensive portfolios at the end of September, equity markets have started to stabilise. Sentiment and portfolios are neutralising without prices rising significantly. Basic strategic confidence also remains weak. Therefore, no all-clear can be given for equities. There are interesting signals in USD-JPY and bonds.

    Further results

    • Bonds: Basic confidence continues to rise
    • USD-JPY: USD risks increase strongly
    • sentix sector sentiment

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    sentix Survey results (40-2022)

    Uploaded:
    09.10.22
    File Size:
    843 KB

    Fear subsides, Instis take courage

    Following the recent record pessimism in sentiment for equities, fears of further price losses are clearly subsiding. Investors' medium-term outlook is also stabilizing at a low level in parallel, so that a bottoming out is possible. Institutional investors are sending a promising signal with their strategic bias, which is improving significantly: we are measuring the highest value since mid-March 2022.

    Further results

    • Bonds: Promising
    • Gold: Convincing development
    • sentix economic index: Monday, 10th October 2022 at 10:30 CEST

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    sentix Survey results (39-2022)

    Uploaded:
    02.10.22
    File Size:
    851 KB

    All-time low in the Super Neutrality Index

    One all-time extreme is currently following the next: After the record low in stock sentiment the previous week, the Super Neutrality Index for German (and European) stocks is now marking an all-time low. Never before in sentix history have there been fewer neutrals than today. Extreme values in this indicator have signal character: "almost every" investor now has an opinion. A low in the Neutrality Index indicates a massive trend exhaustion.

    Further results

    • Equities: Chances increase - no zero-one decision
    • China: High Overconfidence in CSI 300
    • Gold: Bias versus positioning

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