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    September 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    05.09.21
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    393 KB

    Fourth decline in a row!

    The momentum of the global economy is slowing. The expectation scores of most regions in the sentix business cycle indices are falling for the fourth or fifth time in a row. The expectation values are still positive, but the zenith of the economic recovery since the lockdowns last autumn has been passed. This is also evident in the assessments of the economic situation, which have only improved slightly in a few regions. In the important region of Asia ex Japan, on the other hand, we measure a noticeable decline.

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    August 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    08.08.21
    File Size:
    354 KB

    sentix Economic Index: Third decline in a row

    • The recovery of current assessment in the Eurozone continues. Valuations are reaching levels last surpassed in October 2018.
    • However, the expectations component loses significantly by 15.8 points, marking the third decline in a row. The overall index slips by 7.6 points.
    • The German economy also continues to present itself in boom-like condition. The assessment of the current situation rose for the 15th time in a row to 38.5 points. The expectations component suffers similarly strongly.
    • The global economy is also shifting down a gear in the current boom. Here it is not only the expectations values that characterise the loss of momentum, but also the current assessment, which are more clearly in retreat. The pronounced weakness in the Asia ex Japan region also contributes to this.

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    July 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    04.07.21
    File Size:
    429 KB

    Can it get any better?

    The global economy is running at full speed. Even the crisis region of Latin America is back in positive territory for the first time since May 2018. Even if the recession has not yet been fully overcome there, things are booming everywhere. The global situation index rose for the 15th time in a row to 29.4 points. Can it get any better? In the short term, there are increasing signs of overstimulation. Expectations are starting to fall. This could contribute to higher stock market volatility over the summer.

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    June 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    06.06.21
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    665 KB

    Current situation gains momentum

    The economic catch-up process continues and above all the situation is now assessed much better than four weeks ago. No wonder, since more and more restrictions are being lifted in Europe after the Corona case num-bers declined significantly. In Euroland, the situation index rises by 15 points to 21.3. This is the highest value since November 2018. The same can be observed for all other world regions. We also measure further increases in the sentix indices in Latin America and Eastern Europe, where economic activity has been subdued so far.

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    May 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    09.05.21
    File Size:
    588 KB

    Overstimulation?

    The global economy is beginning to show signs of overheating. The situation assessments in all regions continue to improve. With the exception of Latin America and Eastern Europe, we measure positive values everywhere. The Corona-related recession phase has ended. At the same time, expectations remain high. Investors therefore expect a continuation of the current upswing, which is increasingly perceived as a boom. This has a noticeable ef-fect on the situation on the bond markets. Investors expect reactions from the central banks.

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    April 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    05.04.21
    File Size:
    354 KB

    sentix Economic Index: Strong increase in the current situation - worldwide!

    • The sentix Business Cycle Index for the Eurozone rose sharply in March by 5.2 points to its highest level since February 2020. Above all, the situation scores improved significantly. The economic recovery is thus continuing.
    • In Germany, the increase is not quite as strong, but the overall index of 11.9 points is still the best value since November 2018.
    • The improvements are evident in virtually all regions of the world. It is essentially the situation scores that are improving significantly everywhere, indicating that the global economy is emerging from the recession caused by the Corona pandemic. The overall global index rises for the eleventh time in a row to now +20.5 points.

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    March 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    07.03.21
    File Size:
    561 KB

    The global upswing

    At the beginning of March, the global economy is on a sustained recovery path, increasingly driven less by expec-tations for the future and more by improvements in the assessment of the situation. The global situation index rises for the tenth time in a row to 5.5 points, the overall index even for the eleventh time in a row to the best value since March 2018. The picture is basically the same in all world regions, the upswing is thus broad-based. In Euroland, the situation assessment also improved significantly from -27.5 to -19.3 points, despite continuing re-strictions in many countries.

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    February 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    07.02.21
    File Size:
    349 KB

    Europe clearly lagging behind

    The sentix overall economic index for Euroland falls by -1.5 points in February to an index level of -0.2 points. The lockdowns in many European countries are leaving their mark. For Euroland, the assessment of the current situation falls by 1.0 points, while the expectations component drops by 2.0 points. A similar trend can be observed for the assessment of the German economy. The international picture is different. The US economy in particular is setting an exclamation mark. However, Japan and the Asia ex Japan region are also continuing to recover.

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    January 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    10.01.21
    File Size:
    594 KB

    Expectations overshoot

    The sentix economic expectations for Euroland continue to develop very positively. Although large parts of Europe are suffering from a lockdown and the Corona pandemic seems to be flaring up again in other parts of the world, such as Japan, economic expectations continue to rise. In Euroland, they reach 33.5 points, the highest level since records began in 2003. This very positive assessment of expectations is likely to be very much in line with the prospects of a successful vaccination campaign. For in contrast, the situation is moving along very slowly, and in Asia we are even measuring a decline!

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    December 2020 results

    Uploaded:
    07.12.20
    File Size:
    554 KB

    sentix Economic Index: Vaccine releases boom-like growth forces

    The Corona crisis year 2020 will end with a bang, which will set several exclamation marks for the global economy. In our December results, we have a series of all-time highs (!) in the expectation components of various world economic regions. Hopes for an early use of vaccines are fuelling the fantasy that the economy in 2021 will recover more clearly than previously expected from the consensus.

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