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    September 2023 results

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    03.09.23
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    How much is missing before the crisis?

    The signs for the global economy sent out by the "first mover" among the economic indicators - the sentix economic index - point to a further downturn and a strengthening of the economic downturn forces. The situation in Germany remains particularly precarious. Here we are measuring the weakest situation values since July 2020, when the economy was slowed by the first Corona lockdown. Germany is also weighing heavily on the economy in the euro zone as a whole. The recession is progressing. But even for the USA, which has so far held up well and defied the restrictive FED policy, the economic data are falling markedly. The tipping point of a global recession is less distant than one might think.

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    August 2023 results

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    06.08.23
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    Nosedive stopped, but no all clear

    At -18.9 points, the sentix economic index for the euro zone is 3.6 points higher than in July. The overall index thus stopped its nosedive. However, the assessment of the current situation remains weak at -20.5 points, while expectations have risen by 7.3 points to -17.3. Germany is providing fuel for the fire: The largest econ-omy in the euro zone is becoming the sick man of the euro zone and is weighing heavily on the region. The overall index for Germany falls for the fourth time in a row to -30.7 points. The situation slumped by 7.3 points, while the expectations score of -26 points also gave little cause for hope. By contrast, there are bright spots in the economic regions of the USA and Asia ex Japan.

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    July 2023 results

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    09.07.23
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    More than a summer lull

    Concerns about the further development of the global economy have probably not diminished with the latest values of the sentix business cycle indices. For in the "Global Aggregate Index" we note the fifth decline in a row. The Eurozone is certainly making a particular contribution to this. At -22.5 points, the overall index for the Eurozone has fallen to its lowest level since November 2022. The values for Germany, the most important econ-omy in the Eurozone, can only be described as "dramatically bad". However, the "Asia ex Japan" region also con-tributes significantly to the weak global picture, as the overall index here also falls for the fifth time in a row.

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    June 2023 results

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    04.06.23
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    Germany's economy not a summer fairy tale

    The German economy is currently experiencing a downright crash. Instead of a spring revival, the recessionary forces are coming back with a vengeance. Above all, the situation indicators are plummeting, signalling that the downward forces are currently very present. This is also being felt by the rest of the eurozone. With the largest economy on such a difficult path, it should come as no surprise that investors are increasingly bearish on the rest of the eurozone. The June overall index for the Eurozone economy drops again to -17 points. Internationally, only Japan is showing a positive sign with an increase in the overall index against the general trend.

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    May 2023 results

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    07.05.23
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    sentix Economic Index: Significant spring tiredness

    The sentix overall economic index for the euro zone loses 4.4 points and falls back to a level of -13.1 points. Ex-pectations in particular slump to -19.0 points, the lowest level since December 2022. The German economy is also hard hit. The situation scores drop by 6.7 points, while expectations fall to -19.8 points. In the international con-text, the negative signs also dominate. For the US, the decline in expectations is striking. Here, the overall index reaches -17.5 points, the lowest level since November 2022. There is not much left of the laborious economic recovery of 2023.

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    April 2023 results

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    09.04.23
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    391 KB

    Better but still not good

    The Eurozone economy continues to recover at the beginning of April. The major upheavals feared as a result of the gas and electricity price crisis in Europe have failed to materialise this winter. The situation assessment of the 1,300 investors surveyed by sentix reflects this with the sixth consecutive increase in the situation values for the Eurozone. The fact that this is not an all-clear signal becomes clear when looking at the expected values. They remain negative. In Eastern Europe, a friendlier picture is painted, with an increase in both components. For the USA, we measure a deterioration of the situation and expectations, contrary to the trend. This should not go unnoticed!

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    March 2023 results

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    05.03.23
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    394 KB

    Headwinds increase again

    After several months of improvement in investors' assessments of the economic situation and expectations, there is a new headwind for economic development at the beginning of March. In the Eurozone, the economic situation scores improved again, for the fifth time in a row. However, the economic expectations show that we are by no means at the beginning of an upswing. Eurozone economic expectations dropped sharply to -13 points. The situation is similar in the other regions of the world. The expectation values are characterised by clear de-clines across the board.

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    February 2023 results

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    05.02.23
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    From recession to stagnation

    February data in the sentix economic indices come in better than expected. In Euroland, the overall index rises for the fourth time in a row, improving by 9.5 points to now 8 points. The increase signals that a recession is off the table for the time being. Instead, the scenario of stagnation is gaining in contour. In Germany, too, the overall index improved by around 10 points. Both the current situation (+9.2 points) and the economic expectations (+10.2 points) signal an easing of the situation, but not a final all-clear. For the economic region Asia, things are looking better again: With the fifth increase in a row, the economic region is continuing its initiated upswing: The overall index rises by +10.3 points to now +11.7 points. The assessment of the current situation and expectations are moving up together. This also benefits the overall index for the global economy, which climbs to +1.6 points - the highest value since February 2022.

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    January 2023 results

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    08.01.23
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    It remains challenging

    The January data in the sentix economic indices indicate a further improvement. In Euroland, the overall index rises for the third time in a row, improving by 3.5 points to -17.5. There is virtually no change in the assessment of the current situation, with only the expectations values signaling a greater easing of the situation. This basic trend can also be seen in the German economic figures: The assessment of the current situation remains almost unchanged, while expectations have risen by 7.3 points. It can thus be seen that the economic environment remains challenging. Despite the improvement, both subcomponents remain in deep negative territory. There is a glimmer of hope for Asia at the start of the year: expectations for the Asia ex Japan region (especially China) are rising dynamically. The end of the restrictive Corona measures in China is generating hopes of better times ahead.

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    December 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    04.12.22
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    427 KB

    More relaxation

    The latest sentix economic data improve again and surprisingly significantly. Investors are spreading hope that thanks to mild winter weather, sufficient gas in storage and a possible peak in inflation data, the economic down-turn has also passed its zenith. Internationally, there are also more moderate tones from the US Federal Reserve, which is holding out the prospect of "only" 50 basis points of interest rate increases in December. And in China, the protests finally seem to point to an end to the restrictive Corona measures. So will the recession end before it has really begun?

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