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    July 2015 Results

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    05.07.15
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    Euro zone defies Greek crisis

    Despite the increasing confusion surrounding the fate of Greece the composite index for the euro zone rises in July. While investors’ 6-month expectations remain about stable, their assessments of the current situation improve significantly. This constellation signals that market participants already behave as if the euro area was in a boom! In addition, the strong rise of the US index stands out. At the same time, though, the picture for the emerging-markets regions gets ever cloudier which, all in all, points to a world economy losing further steam.

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    June 2015 Results

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    08.06.15
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    Global momentum fades, but Japan takes off

    All in all, sentix Economic Indices point to lower dynamics in the world economy indicated by weaker 6-month expectations for the Global Aggregate. However, developments are rather heterogeneous among the regions: While investors trim back their expectations for the euro area and for Germany, they raise them for Japan and the US. And, at the same time, as a rate hike by the Fed this year becomes more probable, investors’ perspec-tives for the emerging-markets regions get cloudy.

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    May 2015 Results

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    04.05.15
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    Eastern Europe helps Austria

    In a particularly remarkable way the composite index for Austria rises this month. It signals that after a long peri-od of weakness a recovery has returned to the country. An important reason for this should be the relaxation of the tensions in Ukraine. Austria benefits strongly from economic improvements in Eastern Europe as it has firm ties with the region. Apart from this, the upturn in the euro area stabilises. And while the assessment of the cur-rent US situation weakens, 6-month expectations for the United States are back on the rise!

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    April 2015 Results

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    06.04.15
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    US dollar is a burden for the US economy

    Both the current situation and the expectation values of the US economy have slowed this month. From the per-spective of investors surveyed by sentix thus, show in the US economy increasingly sanding marks, which the strong dollar may well explain. Somewhat surprisingly, however, is that we measure a significant damper for the German economy. Particularly as the rest of the euro zone is in a robust constitution. For the Euro zone, the cur-rent situation index rises to its highest level since 2011. Furthermore, the overall index improves as well.

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    March 2015 Results

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    09.03.15
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    Growth back in the euro zone

    The euro-zone economy sends clear signals of strength. Investors’ assessments of the current situation have climbed to their highest since May 2014. But what is even more important is the continued strong improvement of investors’ 6-month expectations which show their highest reading since February 2006. This gives hope that this time the recovery is a more sustainable one enabling the euro zone to finally leave its recessionary tendencies behind. Germany remains the area’s growth engine. On a global level, it is the US which shows some signs of slowing down, probably a result of the ever stronger US dollar.

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    February 2015 Eco Report

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    09.02.15
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    Euro area with a 9-year-high, Switzerland in recession

    In February the composite indices for the euro zone and Germany both rise strongly. Against the background of the details given by the ECB on its coming QE programme 6-month expectations climb to their highest reading since February 2006 for the euro zone. For Germany the composite index even reaches an all-time high. The weak euro and the low price of oil may also have helped (as in the previous months). But this positive development al-so has a flipside: The weakness of the euro has led the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to give up on its de-facto peg to the common currency. By doing so, the SNB has sent the Swiss economy into recession – that is at least what the sentix Economic Index for Switzerland says as it collapses this month. For the “Global Aggregate” the composite index increases for the fourth time in a row because of the improvements for the euro zone and for Japan. At the same time, the slight setback for the US might be an indication that the US economy has peaked already in the current cycle.

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    January 2015 Eco Report

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    05.01.15
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    Germany starts with strong tailwinds into the new year

    In January, the most outstanding development in the survey of the sentix Economic Index is the, once more, strongly improved perception of the German economy. The composite index for Germany rises by 7.0 to 26.6 points and now stands at about the same level as last summer. Low oil prices and a weak euro continue to have an effect. In addition, the export champion benefits from better assessments of the world economy which are, among other things, driven by developments of the US and the Asia ex Japan indices.
    In contrast, investors judge – against the background of falling oil prices – the economic situations in Eastern Europe and Latin America ever worse. But interestingly, 6-month expectations for these regions are on the rise. All in all, investors are rather optimistic regarding economic dynamics in 2015.

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    December 2014 Eco Report

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    08.12.14
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    Coup in Euroland!

    For the euro-area economy investors' 6-month expectations rise in December as strongly as only twice before in the history of the sentix Economic Index. Only in August 2005, ahead of German elections, and in February 2012, when the ECB was about to launch its second LTRO, more pronounced increases could be observed. Also, the assessment of the current situation improves which makes the composite index go up by 9.4 to now -2.5 points. With that, the sentix Economy Clock now points to an upswing for the euro zone!
    For the remaining regions and countries the composite indices rise, too. The only exception is Japan. That the eu-ro zone stands out so clearly this month should be due to the expectation that the ECB will start a large-scale asset-buying programme soon. In addition, the weak euro and the fallen price of oil are obviously perceived as economic boosters. And the low oil price does have positive effects not only in the euro zone!

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    November 2014 Eco Report

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    10.11.14
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    Expectations downtrend stopped

    Since August there was a strong downtrend of the economic expectations for all of the important economies. This trend is stopped now. The latest announcements by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank (ECB) let investors' 6-month-expectations rise again visibly. This is rather remarkable as it recently looked as if the ECB would have lost its power to turn economic expectations round. But also for the US – where the central bank is on a different path – the composite index improves significantly. All in all, fears of a free fall of the world economy are banned for the moment. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if the current month's rise in economic expectations is just a one-off or a more important turn to the positive. The sentix data justify cautious optimism, but not more than that.

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    October 2014 Eco Report

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    06.10.14
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    Euro zone shrinking, the world feeble

    In October, the composite index for the euro zone falls for the third time in a row. As both the assessment of the current situation and the 6-month expectations are now clearly in negative territory, the sentix indices signal shrinking output for the euro area. And there are no positive news coming from the indicators for the other countries or regions either: all composite indices recede this month! Even for the US and Asia ex Japan – both stood out until recently with rather solid indices – the economic shine fades. It is mainly investors' 6-month expectations that worsen. All in all, the data points to a nearing downturn of the world economy.

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