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February 2015 Eco Report
- Uploaded:
- 09.02.15
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- 370 KB
Euro area with a 9-year-high, Switzerland in recession
In February the composite indices for the euro zone and Germany both rise strongly. Against the background of the details given by the ECB on its coming QE programme 6-month expectations climb to their highest reading since February 2006 for the euro zone. For Germany the composite index even reaches an all-time high. The weak euro and the low price of oil may also have helped (as in the previous months). But this positive development al-so has a flipside: The weakness of the euro has led the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to give up on its de-facto peg to the common currency. By doing so, the SNB has sent the Swiss economy into recession – that is at least what the sentix Economic Index for Switzerland says as it collapses this month. For the “Global Aggregate” the composite index increases for the fourth time in a row because of the improvements for the euro zone and for Japan. At the same time, the slight setback for the US might be an indication that the US economy has peaked already in the current cycle.
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January 2015 Eco Report
- Uploaded:
- 05.01.15
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- 382 KB
Germany starts with strong tailwinds into the new year
In January, the most outstanding development in the survey of the sentix Economic Index is the, once more, strongly improved perception of the German economy. The composite index for Germany rises by 7.0 to 26.6 points and now stands at about the same level as last summer. Low oil prices and a weak euro continue to have an effect. In addition, the export champion benefits from better assessments of the world economy which are, among other things, driven by developments of the US and the Asia ex Japan indices.
In contrast, investors judge – against the background of falling oil prices – the economic situations in Eastern Europe and Latin America ever worse. But interestingly, 6-month expectations for these regions are on the rise. All in all, investors are rather optimistic regarding economic dynamics in 2015. -
December 2014 Eco Report
- Uploaded:
- 08.12.14
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- 347 KB
Coup in Euroland!
For the euro-area economy investors' 6-month expectations rise in December as strongly as only twice before in the history of the sentix Economic Index. Only in August 2005, ahead of German elections, and in February 2012, when the ECB was about to launch its second LTRO, more pronounced increases could be observed. Also, the assessment of the current situation improves which makes the composite index go up by 9.4 to now -2.5 points. With that, the sentix Economy Clock now points to an upswing for the euro zone!
For the remaining regions and countries the composite indices rise, too. The only exception is Japan. That the eu-ro zone stands out so clearly this month should be due to the expectation that the ECB will start a large-scale asset-buying programme soon. In addition, the weak euro and the fallen price of oil are obviously perceived as economic boosters. And the low oil price does have positive effects not only in the euro zone! -
November 2014 Eco Report
- Uploaded:
- 10.11.14
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- 389 KB
Expectations downtrend stopped
Since August there was a strong downtrend of the economic expectations for all of the important economies. This trend is stopped now. The latest announcements by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank (ECB) let investors' 6-month-expectations rise again visibly. This is rather remarkable as it recently looked as if the ECB would have lost its power to turn economic expectations round. But also for the US – where the central bank is on a different path – the composite index improves significantly. All in all, fears of a free fall of the world economy are banned for the moment. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if the current month's rise in economic expectations is just a one-off or a more important turn to the positive. The sentix data justify cautious optimism, but not more than that.
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October 2014 Eco Report
- Uploaded:
- 06.10.14
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- 366 KB
Euro zone shrinking, the world feeble
In October, the composite index for the euro zone falls for the third time in a row. As both the assessment of the current situation and the 6-month expectations are now clearly in negative territory, the sentix indices signal shrinking output for the euro area. And there are no positive news coming from the indicators for the other countries or regions either: all composite indices recede this month! Even for the US and Asia ex Japan – both stood out until recently with rather solid indices – the economic shine fades. It is mainly investors' 6-month expectations that worsen. All in all, the data points to a nearing downturn of the world economy.
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September 2014 Eco Report
- Uploaded:
- 08.09.14
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- 360 KB
Euro-zone index collapses again – despite Draghi
Despite the new measures taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) last Thursday the composite index for the euro zone collapses. It falls from +2.7 to now only -9.8 points. As both, the assessment of the current situation and investors' 6-month expectations, now have reached negative territory, the indicator signals a new recession for the euro area! This is all the more noteworthy as during Mario Draghi's presidency the ECB has managed on several occasions to turn round investors' economic expectations. Now, this does not seem to work anymore. In this context it is interesting to know that 6-month expectations of the global aggregate have fallen to their lowest level since November 2012, the time when Japan started its "Abenomics" and managed to influence investors' expectations positively. But obviously central banks have currently – against the backdrop of a number of geopolitical conflicts – lost their power to steer investors' economic expectations.
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August 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)
- Uploaded:
- 04.08.14
- File Size:
- 577 KB
The Russia Effect – Germany sends a cyclical downturn alarm
The sentix economic indices leave their mark with a strong drop in August! The total index for Euroland is reduced by 10.1 to now only 2.7 points. The economic expectations put especially strong pressure on the total index. A surprising drop by 13.3 points is founded on the EU's economic sanctions against Russia. The German index feels this effect in particular: the total index there drops even more strongly from 29.0 points to now only 17.9 points. Here, expectations lose 13.1 points and are now negative for the first time since November 2012 at -1.3 points. The USA and Asia ex Japan are fighting against the trend – however, their expectational components drop, also. All these slumps are founded in the Ukraine crisis which is now radiating out more and more strongly. The index for Eastern Europe drops to -12 points and, with that, into recession mode.
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July 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)
- Uploaded:
- 07.07.14
- File Size:
- 318 KB
Global economic momentum helps the euro zone
After having receded for two months in a row, the sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro zone in-creases again in July by 1.6 to now 10.1 points. On the one hand, investors assess the current economic situation as being better than last month. On the other hand, 6-month expectations also increase slightly after having weakened for four consecutive months. This stabilisation of expectations coincides with a European Central Bank taking new expansionary monetary measures. But a probably more important impact for the euro zone comes from the world economy as expectations improve even more strongly for the other regions in the survey. Posi-tive developments are especially pronounced for the US and for Japan. This should also have had a positive in-fluence on investors' judgments concerning the euro area, too. Consequently, the euro zone now seems to bene-fit from a stronger world economy, while it was itself a prominent motor of global growth until just a few months ago.
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June 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)
- Uploaded:
- 08.06.14
- File Size:
- 317 KB
Euro-zone expectations drop despite Draghi
For the euro zone the sentix Economic Index (composite index) drops markedly in June. This is its second decrease in a row. Investors judge the current situation much worse than in the previous month, and their 6-monthexpectations also decline. The clear setback of the euro-zone index surprises as, in June, investors assess the economic conditions for the remaining world regions as better than before. It is mainly the emerging markets for which their sentiment brightens. The euro-zone indicators' decrease all the more comes as a surprise as the European Central Bank has just announced a whole package of new measures to push economic growth and inflation. But investors so far do not see this aspect of the ECB's policy while they do expect strong effects on the bond market, as complementary sentix data show.
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May 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)
- Uploaded:
- 05.05.14
- File Size:
- 314 KB
Expectations fall across the board
Last month we pointed to the fact that the German economy had lost steam and had probably seen its best times in the current upswing already. Now, it looks as if the economy of the euro zone will suffer the same fate: While assessments of the current situation continue their way up, investors' 6-month expectations are down markedly in May. They fall for the third time in a row. This usually hints at a trend reversal.
