Headline Index at all-time low!


At the beginning of 2018, the euro zone is still in robust shape. As in the past few months, only a few investors are expecting major unrest in the euro zone. In January 2018, the overall index even fell to a historic low of 6.9%! If you want to look out for possible problem areas, the focus will naturally be on Italy. The forthcoming parliamentary elec-tions are a source of uncertainty. The Italian sub-index is rising against the general trend.

At the beginning of 2018, the euro-zone is more robust than ever since sentix launched its Euro Break-up Index. The headline index for the euro-zone falls to 6.9%, an all-time low! It is impressive that apart from Italy and Greece, no other southern countries have a more than 1% chance of leaving the euro area. Finland is currently the third highest contributor with 1.0%, followed by Germany (0.9%) and Cyprus (0.7%).

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Headline Index Euro area and Sub-index Italy

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Headline Index Euro area and Sub-index Italy

The trend of the last few months thus continues. When looking for possible problem areas, the focus is on Italy. Con-trary to the general trend, the sub-index here rises to 5.22%. Italy thus remains the country which, from the investors' point of view, is the most likely to be regarded as a candidate for exit from the euro. We are expecting these concerns to increase until the election, similar to what happened before the Brexit vote.


The sentix Euro Breakup Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Breakup Index can be found on http://ebr.sentix.de.

This month’s reading of 6.905% means that currently, this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012 and touched its low at 6.905% in January, 2018.

The current poll in which about 1.000 institutional and retail investors participated was conducted from January 25th to January 27th, 2018.

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