Moderation despite Finns


The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) for August falls by around eleven percentage points to 61.9 %. The survey was conducted among 841 private and institutional investors from August, 24th, to August, 26th. The EBI stands for the probability investors attribute to the event of at least one country leaving the euro zone within the next twelve months.

The last survey in July was conducted immediately after ECB-president Draghi's speech in front of London investors, but before the latest ECB press conference. It seems that essentially Mr Draghi's new approach to solving the euro crisis – which he laid out during this press conference – has impressed investors recently. In addition, positive news surrounding the euro zone's periphery countries might have cheered up sentiment: The Spanish and the Greek governments both have decided on further budget cuts, the Irish economy sends some signs of life, and leading euro politicians have shown more commitment to finally resolving the crisis.

Of those survey participants who expect at least one country to leave the euro within the next twelve months, still a huge majority anticipates a so-called "Grexit" (96.4 % after 96.9 %). But one has to bear in mind that the total share of those who expect a euro break-up has decreased since July (see above). But, investors do not perceive Greece as the only an exit candidate. Cyprus remains the country with the second highest score among the euro skeptics. Its index rises to 26.0 % from 23.4 %. For those who forecast a quick euro break-up Italy does not seem to play a role anymore. For Spain, too, the EBI falls to 11.3 % from 15.4 %. Finally, Portugal manages to shift once more out of the euro pessimists' focus. Its EBI recedes one percentage point to 11.2 %.

For whom, then, – except for Cyprus – do investors now see a higher probability of leaving the euro? Interestingly, for two countries from the core! The Finnish index climbs by almost eleven points to 20.5 %. Furthermore, the German indicator goes up to 9.3 % from 7.0 %. Given the softer tones by Chancellor Angela Merkel, the German development was not on the cards. In contrast, the rise of Finland's index does not come as a surprise as the recent rhetoric from the euro north fits well into this picture. That, finally, leaves one tempted asking: "Is that really the true Finns?"

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