sentix Survey Essentials (English)

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    sentix Survey results 41-2019

    Uploaded:
    13.10.19
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    Sentiment impulses

    The ups and downs of the stock markets are usually based on the dynamics of the economy as measured by the sentix economic situation indices. The strength of this dynamic is often due to the trend in interest rates. Since the beginning of 2018, however, equities have decoupled themselves in a special way from economic momentum. The reason: only parts of the economy have been in recession so far and interest rates are well below 0%. Does this carry stocks any further?

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    sentix Survey results 40-2019

    Uploaded:
    06.10.19
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    975 KB

    Buy signals from sentiment

    People make markets - and these are under the impression of emotions. This applies to investors worldwide. Our chart of the week shows the sentix sentiment values for US equities. In the last 12 months the market has gone through 11 sentiment cycles. These can be seen more clearly at sentix than with known US data, e.g. the put call ratio. Currently, another exciting point has been reached (see commentary in the analysis).

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    sentix Survey results 39-2019

    Uploaded:
    29.09.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    US equity sentiment - „made in Germany“

    Sentiment for US equities is dropping by 13 percentage points, completely dispelling the optimism that prevailed for Wall Street at the beginning of September. A comparison with the AAII Bull Bear Index shows the leading characteristic of the sentix sentiment indicator, the turning points are displayed much earlier and thus more accurately than their US counterparts: US stock sentiment - "made in Germany"!

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    sentix Survey results 38-2019

    Uploaded:
    22.09.19
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    1 MB

    Profit taking announced

    Stronger profit-taking is indicated for bonds in Euroland. The bias does not follow the stabilization attempt that is taking place in the Bund future. The price recovery should be used to reduce positions.

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    sentix Survey results 37-2019

    Uploaded:
    15.09.19
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    1 MB

    The smart money is still holding back

    While the US equity market, measured by the S&P 500, is already close to its all-time high again, "smart" large-scale investors have so far been very reluctant to buy. This is measured by the “Smart Money Flow Index”. Noteworthy in this index are divergences from the price trend. Thus, the SMFI fell significantly from spring onwards before the downturn in Q4 2018. There is also a (small) divergence at the current edge. The basic confidence is apparently lacking.

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    sentix Survey results 36-2019

    Uploaded:
    08.09.19
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    995 KB

    Gold bias continues to tip over

    Over the past twelve months, investors' investment behaviour in gold has changed significantly. The lowest position since 2007 has become one of the highest gold ratios in investor portfolios. This position building was supported by a positive perception of value on the part of investors. However, this has already weakened significantly in recent weeks. This should lead investors to think about profit taking.

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    sentix Survey results 35-2019

    Uploaded:
    01.09.19
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    876 KB

    Positive market breadth for US equities

    Market breadth is an important building block in the assessment of stock markets. An indicator for the composition of the market breadth is the "Advance Decline" line. It measures daily how many shares are rising or falling and the cumulative result. Currently, the "AD line" for the S&P 500 reaches a new all-time high and is thus positively divergent from the price trend, which has not yet reached this high. A sign of strength.

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    sentix Survey results 34-2019

    Uploaded:
    25.08.19
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    1 MB

    Gold risks sharply increased

    With the sentix risk radar, we systematically measure opportunities and risks that arise for investments from sentiment or technical analysis. Extreme values arise when the indications across all the sub-indicators considered show strong characteristics. For gold (in USD), the overall index reaches such a high value with -2.1 standard deviations. The average price expectation over 4-6 weeks is now -5%!

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    sentix Survey results 33-2019

    Uploaded:
    18.08.19
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    929 KB

    The fear of the "R"

    The sentiment for US stocks rushes into the cellar for the second time within 3 weeks, fear spreads before the "R-word". Both the contrary indication about the sentix sentiment as well as about the AAII Bull-Bear-Index suggests a price recovery in the S&P 500. How much it can become depends on the strategic bias. Unfortunately, this does not reflect any particular strength.

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    sentix Survey results 32-2019

    Uploaded:
    11.08.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Surprisingly high confidence in bonds

    The global bond markets are showing extraordinary dynamism. Since 12 July, interest rates for 10-year Bunds have fallen by 35bp. This development is driven by an extraordinarily high basic conviction among investors, which is based, among other things, on the deep conviction that further ECB interest rate cuts are to be expected. There were similar developments in 2014 and 2016, but this "perception of value" is surprising in view of negative interest rates up to a term of 30 years. How deep will the coming recession be?

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