sentix Survey Essentials (English)

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    sentix Survey results 31-2021

    Uploaded:
    01.08.21
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    810 KB

    China in focus

    The focus is on the Chinese stock market, whose technology stocks have come under massive pressure. The weakness of the market had been announced in recent weeks via a poor strategic bias. But the situation still seems too early for a contrarian buy. Our risk radar does not give the all-clear. Rather, the question is how long the remaining risk assets can ignore this imbalance.

    Further results:

    • Global Equities: Scepticism goes, overconfidence remains
    • Risk radar: Tense situation with bonds
    • FX: Rising carelessness in EUR/CHF

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    sentix Survey results 30-2021

    Uploaded:
    25.07.21
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Moderate improvement in sentiment

    In recent weeks, strategic confidence in oil has plummeted. This usually leads to position reductions. However, positioning is by no means very bullish at the moment, so there is less risk to the oil price than would otherwise be the case. In equities, sentiment is neutralising and the neutral position is filling up again. A volatile summer phase is thus not yet off the table.

    Further results:

    • Gold: Bias remains stable
    • Crude oil: Weak bias but positive seasonal pattern
    • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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    sentix Survey results 29-2021

    Uploaded:
    18.07.21
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    1 MB

    Unusually stable sentiment

    We continue to measure unusual sentiment developments on the stock market. Although the technical condition of the stock markets has deteriorated over the course of the week, impressively demonstrated for example by the decline of stocks above the 250-day line in the Russell 2000 Index and the resulting negative divergence in the indicator, there has been virtually no change in sentiment and bias. In our opinion, this is not a positive sign.

    Further results:

    • Bonds: Private investors develop strategic confidence
    • Crude oil: Strategic bias falls again
    • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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    sentix Survey results 28-2021

    Uploaded:
    11.07.21
    File Size:
    1 MB

    TD buy signals

    The moderate correction over the course of the week has an astonishingly large impact on sentiment in equities. With underlying confidence stable at the same time, buy signals are emerging in the TD Index. Statistically, these are very interesting, but two reasons are likely to limit the bulls' dreams: on the one hand, the approaching end of seasonal support and, on the other, the further clouding of the strategic situation in China.

    Further results:

    • Precious metals: Positive bias development
    • Crude oil: Strategic bias tips off
    • sentix Sector Sentiment

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    sentix Survey results 27-2021

    Uploaded:
    04.07.21
    File Size:
    1023 KB

    Something does not fit together

    Bond prices seem stable. In the background, however, basic strategic confidence has plummeted and positioning, conversely, is far too high. These developments do not fit together, especially as the latest economic figures are adding fuel to the fire. The latest July data from the "first mover" point the way. Speaking of oil, the risk factors for black gold are rising again. The situation is much more relaxed for precious metals.

    Further results:

    • Equities: China as a disruptive factor
    • Crude oil: Risk radar with negative signal
    • sentix economic index: Monday, 05th July 2021 at 10:30 AM CET

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    sentix Survey results 26-2021

    Uploaded:
    27.06.21
    File Size:
    909 KB

    Bears lose patience

    Offensively oriented equity portfolios meet extremely high neutrality. This is likely to lead to greater volatility in the coming weeks! In addition, the bears are slowly losing patience, the correction in equities just won't come. So something is brewing! Risks are also increasing in crude oil: The Overconfidence Index is the first warning signal.

    Further results:

    • Equities: Super-Neutrality with new all-time high
    • Crude oil: High overconfidence
    • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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    sentix Survey results 25-2021

    Uploaded:
    20.06.21
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Weak post-future expiry week likely

    The June futures expiry is usually very important in the stock markets. Investors take stock of the first half of the year and are called upon to position themselves for the second half of the year and - even more important - for the often volatile summer months. The week after expiry is usually accompanied by price weakness before a final phase of strength until the end of July. Sentiment data does not necessarily contradict this course, with volatility casting its shadow ahead.

    Further results:

    • Equities: Professionals lose basic confidence
    • Gold: First stabilisation, then upswing again
    • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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    sentix Survey results 24-2021

    Uploaded:
    13.06.21
    File Size:
    1 MB

    No summer rally in sight

    The markets remain emotionless and careless. The measured overconfidence levels for European equities call for caution, and investors are successively closing their vola-short positions in the United States. The positioning behaviour on the US bond market is striking: bias and positioning go separate ways. No all-clear can be given for bitcoins either. On the other hand, precious metals remain solidly supported.

    Further results:

    • Bonds: Positioning and US bias go separate ways
    • Gold: Still solid
    • sentix Sector Sentiment: Holiday feelings

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    sentix Survey results 23-2021

    Uploaded:
    06.06.21
    File Size:
    814 KB

    Emotionless and careless

    The current situation on the stock market is accompanied by low levels of emotion. At the same time, there is still a lack of medium-term fundamental conviction. This is causing a lot of irritation among investors, which can be seen in the neutrality indices: For the TecDAX we even measure a new all-time high in its twenty-year history! This phenomenon can also be observed on other stock markets. More volatile weeks should therefore lie ahead.

    Further results:

    • Bonds: Lack of trust
    • Gold: Sustained high basic conviction
    • sentix economic index: Monday, 07th June 2021 at 10:30h CEST

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    sentix Survey results 22-2021

    Uploaded:
    30.05.21
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Rising volatility to be expected

    There has been little news in the sentix data set over the course of the week. Increasing volatility is expected on the US stock market. Investors in Europe are also positioned rather offensively, which is often rather unfavourable in the run-up to the summer months. Steadiness in the price rise is likely to have contributed to this optimistic portfolio action. However, the sentix Overconfidence Index is thus reaching a critical level for German equities.

    Further results:

    • Equities: Overconfidence on the German stock market
    • Gold: Basic confidence remains high
    • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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