sentix Survey Essentials (English)

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    sentix Survey results 08-2020

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    23.02.20
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    Weak strategic confidence continues to weigh heavily on equities

    In the course of the week, investors' concerns about the spread of the corona virus have increased significantly. This is mainly due to the fact that there are two new areas of high numbers of infection, South Korea and Italy. Drastic measures to contain the epidemic would cause further severe damage to the global economy. In any case, investors' basic confidence continues to decline sharply, reinforcing the tendency to reduce equity positions.

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    sentix Survey results 07-2020

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    16.02.20
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    Equities: No good news, bias rushes down

    Since last Monday it has been clear that sentix economic expectations are being dampened for the first time after three consecutive rises. For the region Asia ex Japan (China) the decline is even more pronounced than in the other regions of the world. If economic expectations follow the decline in the Baltic Dry index, this could mean further difficulties. The stock markets (CSI 300) have so far reacted to the clouding only to a limited extent. The strategic equity bias is clearly collapsing globally.

    Further topics:

    • Equities: Great sentiment divergence
    • FX: Dollar-Run
    • sentix Sector sentiment

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    sentix Survey results 06-2020

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    09.02.20
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    Equities: The fear quickly disappeared again

    The "Corona fears" have dissipated within a week. The development in the fight against the virus encourages investors that the negative consequences for the economy will be limited. Sentiment for US equities, for example, has risen by an impressive 45 percentage points. The contrary buy signal to the previous week is thus void, the market must now think about the strategic potential of stocks. The bias is slightly declining, but there is no sell-signal for US equities yet.

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    sentix Survey results 05-2020

    Uploaded:
    02.02.20
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    794 KB

    CRAZY

    The expected correction in equities is taking shape. With the spread of the virus in China and all the associated horror scenarios, sales are experiencing increasing momentum. Sentiment for equities (in this case the US) plunges into negative territory. A comparison with the US stock sentiment during the SARS spread and today reveals a high similarity. At that time, however, there was real fear in the market (-45 percentage points). This fear persisted until mid-March 2003.

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    sentix Survey results 04-2020

    Uploaded:
    26.01.20
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    1 MB

    Consolidation underway

    Has the overdue correction in the US equity market ended before it has really started? Because the mood has already neutralized again and at the same time the basic confidence is asserting itself surprisingly clearly. Nevertheless, we expect the consolidation trend that has begun to continue, not least because we can measure both a sentiment and a volatility divergence. This is often just as much a harbinger of a weak phase as a sentiment divergence.

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    sentix Survey results 03-2020

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    19.01.20
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    1 MB

    Consolidation ante portas

    In the previous week we emphasized the increased risks in the US equity market. In the course of the week this did not change. The overbought situation has now reached almost 30% of all shares in the S&P 500. This is a historically high level and was only outbid at the beginning of 2018. By contrast, the mood has cooled down. Is this positive and is there a negative sentiment divergence? This is what we are investigating in this sentix sentiment analysis.

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    sentix Survey results 02-2020

    Uploaded:
    13.01.20
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    1 MB

    Risk-signals for US equities

    The stock markets, especially in the USA, have made a good start to the new year. Even geopolitical irritations were unable to unsettle investors significantly. But now there are increasing signs of consolidation. The sentix risk radar is at -1.4 points, one of the most negative values since 2001, reflecting sentiment, technical analysis and positioning. The second half of January is also often a time for consolidation due to seasonal factors.

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    sentix Survey results 01-2020

    Uploaded:
    05.01.20
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    808 KB

    Overconfidence in series

    At the end of the year, almost everything has now taken a knock, which is an anti-cyclical reminder to be cautious with equities. In addition to the high values in the sentix Sentiment for US equities, the AAII bull bear index has also reached an extreme value. In addition, we measured high long ratios among both private and institutional investors at the end of December. Risk is also indicated by the high overconfidence. The start of the year should be bumpy.

    Further topics:

    • Equities: Italy's stock market creates perspectiv
    • Crude oil: Sentiment runs hot
    • sentix Economic indices: Monday, 06.01.2020, 10.30 AM

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