sentix Survey Essentials (English)

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    sentix Survey results 45-2019

    Uploaded:
    10.11.19
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    1 MB

    Consolidation enters next phase

    For more than two months we have been stressing the need to consolidate the gold price. Although strategic confidence is high, investor positioning was too high even for this bias. Now basic confidence is suffering a significant setback. Investors are sensing an economic recovery and interest rates are rising. This is probably too much for the yellow precious metal in the short term and the consolidation is moving into the next phase.

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    sentix Survey results 44-2019

    Uploaded:
    03.11.19
    File Size:
    983 KB

    Loss of confidence in US bonds

    The reaction after the last FED meeting is clear: US Treasuries are suffering a loss of confidence, the strategic bias for US Longbonds continues to tip over. Investors have hardly reacted to this in their portfolios yet. Although the COT data still show slight short quotas, a stronger adjustment would have been expected due to the bias decline. This could happen in the coming weeks.

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    sentix Survey results 43-2019

    Uploaded:
    27.10.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Good mood in the short-term

    The mood on the stock markets has improved significantly in recent weeks and has reached a level that has rather marked upper turning points in the last 18 months. A closer look at the data reveals a relatively low number of bulls. In other words, many neutrally tuned investors are behind the good mood. And that in turn usually means a rising volatility!

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    sentix Survey results 42-2019

    Uploaded:
    20.10.19
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    949 KB

    Investors go into advance payment

    Is an unregulated Brexit coming or is the economy picking up? The news remains uncertain, but investors are deciding: the stock bias is on the rise, safe investment havens such as gold and bonds are suffering a loss of confidence. Currencies are also on the move: The bias at EUR/USD is pointing upwards and is thus going into advance performance, positioning and exchange rate should follow soon.

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    sentix Survey results 41-2019

    Uploaded:
    13.10.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Sentiment impulses

    The ups and downs of the stock markets are usually based on the dynamics of the economy as measured by the sentix economic situation indices. The strength of this dynamic is often due to the trend in interest rates. Since the beginning of 2018, however, equities have decoupled themselves in a special way from economic momentum. The reason: only parts of the economy have been in recession so far and interest rates are well below 0%. Does this carry stocks any further?

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    sentix Survey results 40-2019

    Uploaded:
    06.10.19
    File Size:
    975 KB

    Buy signals from sentiment

    People make markets - and these are under the impression of emotions. This applies to investors worldwide. Our chart of the week shows the sentix sentiment values for US equities. In the last 12 months the market has gone through 11 sentiment cycles. These can be seen more clearly at sentix than with known US data, e.g. the put call ratio. Currently, another exciting point has been reached (see commentary in the analysis).

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    sentix Survey results 39-2019

    Uploaded:
    29.09.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    US equity sentiment - „made in Germany“

    Sentiment for US equities is dropping by 13 percentage points, completely dispelling the optimism that prevailed for Wall Street at the beginning of September. A comparison with the AAII Bull Bear Index shows the leading characteristic of the sentix sentiment indicator, the turning points are displayed much earlier and thus more accurately than their US counterparts: US stock sentiment - "made in Germany"!

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    sentix Survey results 38-2019

    Uploaded:
    22.09.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Profit taking announced

    Stronger profit-taking is indicated for bonds in Euroland. The bias does not follow the stabilization attempt that is taking place in the Bund future. The price recovery should be used to reduce positions.

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    sentix Survey results 37-2019

    Uploaded:
    15.09.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    The smart money is still holding back

    While the US equity market, measured by the S&P 500, is already close to its all-time high again, "smart" large-scale investors have so far been very reluctant to buy. This is measured by the “Smart Money Flow Index”. Noteworthy in this index are divergences from the price trend. Thus, the SMFI fell significantly from spring onwards before the downturn in Q4 2018. There is also a (small) divergence at the current edge. The basic confidence is apparently lacking.

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    sentix Survey results 36-2019

    Uploaded:
    08.09.19
    File Size:
    995 KB

    Gold bias continues to tip over

    Over the past twelve months, investors' investment behaviour in gold has changed significantly. The lowest position since 2007 has become one of the highest gold ratios in investor portfolios. This position building was supported by a positive perception of value on the part of investors. However, this has already weakened significantly in recent weeks. This should lead investors to think about profit taking.

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