sentix Survey Essentials (English)

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    sentix Survey results 37-2019

    Uploaded:
    15.09.19
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    1 MB

    The smart money is still holding back

    While the US equity market, measured by the S&P 500, is already close to its all-time high again, "smart" large-scale investors have so far been very reluctant to buy. This is measured by the “Smart Money Flow Index”. Noteworthy in this index are divergences from the price trend. Thus, the SMFI fell significantly from spring onwards before the downturn in Q4 2018. There is also a (small) divergence at the current edge. The basic confidence is apparently lacking.

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    sentix Survey results 36-2019

    Uploaded:
    08.09.19
    File Size:
    995 KB

    Gold bias continues to tip over

    Over the past twelve months, investors' investment behaviour in gold has changed significantly. The lowest position since 2007 has become one of the highest gold ratios in investor portfolios. This position building was supported by a positive perception of value on the part of investors. However, this has already weakened significantly in recent weeks. This should lead investors to think about profit taking.

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    sentix Survey results 35-2019

    Uploaded:
    01.09.19
    File Size:
    876 KB

    Positive market breadth for US equities

    Market breadth is an important building block in the assessment of stock markets. An indicator for the composition of the market breadth is the "Advance Decline" line. It measures daily how many shares are rising or falling and the cumulative result. Currently, the "AD line" for the S&P 500 reaches a new all-time high and is thus positively divergent from the price trend, which has not yet reached this high. A sign of strength.

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    sentix Survey results 34-2019

    Uploaded:
    25.08.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    Gold risks sharply increased

    With the sentix risk radar, we systematically measure opportunities and risks that arise for investments from sentiment or technical analysis. Extreme values arise when the indications across all the sub-indicators considered show strong characteristics. For gold (in USD), the overall index reaches such a high value with -2.1 standard deviations. The average price expectation over 4-6 weeks is now -5%!

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    sentix Survey results 33-2019

    Uploaded:
    18.08.19
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    929 KB

    The fear of the "R"

    The sentiment for US stocks rushes into the cellar for the second time within 3 weeks, fear spreads before the "R-word". Both the contrary indication about the sentix sentiment as well as about the AAII Bull-Bear-Index suggests a price recovery in the S&P 500. How much it can become depends on the strategic bias. Unfortunately, this does not reflect any particular strength.

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    sentix Survey results 32-2019

    Uploaded:
    11.08.19
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    1 MB

    Surprisingly high confidence in bonds

    The global bond markets are showing extraordinary dynamism. Since 12 July, interest rates for 10-year Bunds have fallen by 35bp. This development is driven by an extraordinarily high basic conviction among investors, which is based, among other things, on the deep conviction that further ECB interest rate cuts are to be expected. There were similar developments in 2014 and 2016, but this "perception of value" is surprising in view of negative interest rates up to a term of 30 years. How deep will the coming recession be?

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    sentix Survey results 31-2019

    Uploaded:
    04.08.19
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    845 KB

    Bargain hunters, where are you?

    With a bear surplus of 35 percentage points, the sentiment for US equities reflects strongly frightened investors. We measure a 52-week low in the sentiment barometer (inverted presentation). At the same time, the P/C ratio is also starting to rise. The measured fear is an indication that we are heading for a temporary market low. However, a return of US equities to the bull market seems impossible. The reaction in the strategic bias (not shown) is too weak for this.

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    sentix Survey results 30-2019

    Uploaded:
    28.07.19
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    895 KB

    Silver bias goes through the ceiling

    At 71 percent, the strategic bull overhang in silver marks an absolute record. The strategic bias on silver rises to dizzying heights and illustrates the extremely high basic conviction among investors. A reaction in the positioning behavior has already taken place! With almost 55,000 contracts traded (CoT Report), speculations on a rising silver price predominate. It remains positive that the sentiment for silver (see also page 4 middle) with +30% clearly lags behind the bias.

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    sentix Survey results 29-2019

    Uploaded:
    21.07.19
    File Size:
    889 KB

    The bear comes back, but he's not yelling out

    The two large investor camps are once again taking different paths in their strategic considerations. The difference between the bias of institutional and private investors has risen again to 10 points for the US equity market. The private sector is therefore much more sceptical than the investment professionals. As a rule, this is a good sign for the stock markets. On an 8-week horizon, the S&P 500 will rise by an average of 2.8 percent after such a signal. But there are also rare exceptions: September 2018!

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    sentix Survey results 28-2019

    Uploaded:
    14.07.19
    File Size:
    1 MB

    GBP in focus

    The United Kingdom is still struggling to find the right course on the Brexit issue. The answer will come from a new prime minister. The fact that economic data in the UK have developed comparatively positively has remained largely unnoticed in recent weeks. The country has so far coped surprisingly well with the Brexit uncertainty. Now there are signs of a rethink among investors. The British pound could benefit from this!

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