English
Folder: Reports (English)
Files:
-
May 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.05.21
- File Size:
- 588 KB
Overstimulation?
The global economy is beginning to show signs of overheating. The situation assessments in all regions continue to improve. With the exception of Latin America and Eastern Europe, we measure positive values everywhere. The Corona-related recession phase has ended. At the same time, expectations remain high. Investors therefore expect a continuation of the current upswing, which is increasingly perceived as a boom. This has a noticeable ef-fect on the situation on the bond markets. Investors expect reactions from the central banks.
-
April 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.04.21
- File Size:
- 354 KB
sentix Economic Index: Strong increase in the current situation - worldwide!
- The sentix Business Cycle Index for the Eurozone rose sharply in March by 5.2 points to its highest level since February 2020. Above all, the situation scores improved significantly. The economic recovery is thus continuing.
- In Germany, the increase is not quite as strong, but the overall index of 11.9 points is still the best value since November 2018.
- The improvements are evident in virtually all regions of the world. It is essentially the situation scores that are improving significantly everywhere, indicating that the global economy is emerging from the recession caused by the Corona pandemic. The overall global index rises for the eleventh time in a row to now +20.5 points.
-
March 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.03.21
- File Size:
- 561 KB
The global upswing
At the beginning of March, the global economy is on a sustained recovery path, increasingly driven less by expec-tations for the future and more by improvements in the assessment of the situation. The global situation index rises for the tenth time in a row to 5.5 points, the overall index even for the eleventh time in a row to the best value since March 2018. The picture is basically the same in all world regions, the upswing is thus broad-based. In Euroland, the situation assessment also improved significantly from -27.5 to -19.3 points, despite continuing re-strictions in many countries.
-
February 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.02.21
- File Size:
- 349 KB
Europe clearly lagging behind
The sentix overall economic index for Euroland falls by -1.5 points in February to an index level of -0.2 points. The lockdowns in many European countries are leaving their mark. For Euroland, the assessment of the current situation falls by 1.0 points, while the expectations component drops by 2.0 points. A similar trend can be observed for the assessment of the German economy. The international picture is different. The US economy in particular is setting an exclamation mark. However, Japan and the Asia ex Japan region are also continuing to recover.
-
January 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 10.01.21
- File Size:
- 594 KB
Expectations overshoot
The sentix economic expectations for Euroland continue to develop very positively. Although large parts of Europe are suffering from a lockdown and the Corona pandemic seems to be flaring up again in other parts of the world, such as Japan, economic expectations continue to rise. In Euroland, they reach 33.5 points, the highest level since records began in 2003. This very positive assessment of expectations is likely to be very much in line with the prospects of a successful vaccination campaign. For in contrast, the situation is moving along very slowly, and in Asia we are even measuring a decline!
-
December 2020 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.12.20
- File Size:
- 554 KB
sentix Economic Index: Vaccine releases boom-like growth forces
The Corona crisis year 2020 will end with a bang, which will set several exclamation marks for the global economy. In our December results, we have a series of all-time highs (!) in the expectation components of various world economic regions. Hopes for an early use of vaccines are fuelling the fantasy that the economy in 2021 will recover more clearly than previously expected from the consensus.
-
November 2020 results
- Uploaded:
- 08.11.20
- File Size:
- 544 KB
Asia makes it better!
The rising number of positive PCR test results is causing politicians to fear an uncontrolled spread of the corona virus. Although the serious consequences of a lockdown on economic development were experienced in March, most governments in Europe are going down the path of renewed contact restrictions. Although these do not have the same negative effect as in March, they do dampen the economic recovery process. Surprisingly, however, the effect on the sentix business cycle index is surprisingly limited at -1.7 points on an overall index of -10 points. The reason for this "mild lockdown" is probably the positive dynamics in Asia and the USA.
-
October 2020 results
- Uploaded:
- 04.10.20
- File Size:
- 344 KB
Asia continues to pick up, Euroland stagnating
The economic recovery in Euroland takes a breather in October. After five successive improvements, the sentix overall economic index for the euro zone fell marginally by -0.3 points to -8.3 points. However, the current situation continues to improve, reaching its highest level since March 2020. The data does not reveal any significant risk element in the short term, as the expectations index remains at a higher level despite a decline of 2 points. The outlook for Germany looks somewhat better than for the euro area as a whole. There are positive developments to report, especially from Asia ex Japan and the US.
-
September 2020 results
- Uploaded:
- 06.09.20
- File Size:
- 398 KB
Fifth consecutive increase
The economic recovery, which has been observable globally since May 2020, continues in September. In Euro-land, but also in many other regions, we are measuring the fifth consecutive rise in the overall indices. A positive aspect is that the expectation values remain stable, i.e. the improvement is largely driven by the current situa-tion. However, these values are still largely in negative territory, meaning that the recessionary tendencies have not yet been fully overcome. In an international comparison, Switzerland and Asia ex Japan stand out.
-
August 2020 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.08.20
- File Size:
- 389 KB
The current situation is moving along
In August, the sentix overall index for the eurozone economy climbed by +4.8 to -13.4 points for the fourth time in a row. The current situation values increased by 8.2 points, but are still in recession at -41.3 points. At +19.3 points, expectations remain stably positive, meaning that the economic recovery should continue. We also measure the fourth consecutive improvement for Germany. The current situation values increased by 10 points month-on-month and now stand at -30.8 points. Internationally, the Asian region is leading the improvement: The overall index for Asia ex-Japan is even above zero. The recovery in the USA and Latin America remains disappointing.
