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    May 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    05.05.14
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    Expectations fall across the board

    Last month we pointed to the fact that the German economy had lost steam and had probably seen its best times in the current upswing already. Now, it looks as if the economy of the euro zone will suffer the same fate: While assessments of the current situation continue their way up, investors' 6-month expectations are down markedly in May. They fall for the third time in a row. This usually hints at a trend reversal.

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    April 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    07.04.14
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    German economy loses steam

    The sentix economic index (composite index) for Germany falls in April for the third time in a row. While 6-monthexpectations have been dragging down the indicator over the past months, it is now also the assessment of the current situation which is not lending support to the composite index anymore. The German economy thus loses steam. The big question now is how the euro-zone economy will react to this. Still, it is looking robust: The composite index for the euro area increases, once more, slightly. But expectations are down a little for the second consecutive month. For the rest of the world sentiment is improving slightly in April. Investors are again more upbeat for the Emerging markets regions after last month's Crimean crisis shock. Also do they see improvements for the US. But sorrows are growing for Japan: Here, the composite index falls markedly for the third time in a row. 6-monthexpectations for Japan's economy have now reached a level last seen in November 2012. That was exactly the time when the so-called "Abenomics" started to take effects on investors' confidence. Their positive impact has obviously faded now.

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    March 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    10.03.14
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    Robust, but heterogeneous

    The sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro zone rises again in March and climbs from 13.3 to 13.9 points. This development is driven by investors' assessments of the current situation, while 6-month expecta-tions fall for the first time since September. For Germany, expectations decline for the third month in a row. Nevertheless, the composite index still signals that the German economy is in the middle of boom. In the rest of the world things look rather mixed: Against the background of the Crimean crisis the sentix economic index for Eastern Europe drops strongly. But it rises for the two other emerging-markets regions, Asia ex Japan and Latin America. For the US, investors' opinions remain almost unchanged, while for Japan sentiment worsens further. The composite index for the global aggregate stays at a constant level, but the relatively high heterogeneity between countries and regions points to an increased uncertainty among investors and blurs the overall picture.

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    February 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    10.02.14
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    Euro zone counters global drop in sentiment

    A little surprisingly, the sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro area continues its upward trend in February, rising by 1.4 to 13.3 points. It is mainly the current situation which is assessed in a better way than in the previous month by the almost 1,000 individual and institutional investors in the sentix survey. The correspondent index now reaches positive territory for the first time since August 2011. The increase of the composite index for the euro zone is all the more remarkable as investors perceive a clear drop in economic activity on a global level. Especially for the emerging markets they become more skeptical. But also for Japan sentiment is muted.

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    January 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    07.01.14
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    The Euro zone leaves its crisis behind

    The composite index for the euro zone rises by 3.9 to 11.9 points in January. This increase is the strongest of a composite index in January among all surveyed countries and regions. It is also noteworthy that the assessment of the current situation for the euro zone improves markedly and has now entered neutral territory. Consequently, at the start of 2014 Euroland finally leaves its crisis behind. Looking at other countries and regions, the composite index for Germany – which celebrates its fifth anniversary this month – rises slightly from 32.1 to 32.4 points. Germany thus remains the growth engine for the euro zone. The generally positive picture at the beginning of the year is only blurred by the figures for Asia ex Japan. Nevertheless, the composite index for the global aggregate increases for the sixth month in a row.

     

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    December 2013 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    09.12.13
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    Germany takes off, the euro zone a breather

    The composite index for the euro area drops in November from 9.3 to 8.0 points. The reason for this is a slightly clouded perception of the economic situation. Investor expectations rise, however, to their highest reading since April 2006! Germany once again defies the development of the euro zone aggregate. The composite index for Germany rises by around two to now 32.1 points and, with that, to its highest reading since December 2010. Expectations climb, as they did last month, to new all-time highs (since the introduction of the survey now almost five years ago). This month's winner, however, is the USA. For the US, the composite index rises by over 10 points. This, in turn, drives the composite index for the global aggregate, which rises for the fifth consecutive month and has now reached a level last seen in April 2011.

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    November 2013 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    04.11.13
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    Germany hits a new high

    In November, the composite index for the euro zone rises by 3.2 to now 9.3 points. This is its highest value since May 2011, and, this month, the strongest increase among all regions. Investors have become especially upbeat concerning the economic situation. For Germany, the composite index also improves. Here, the 6-month expectations are more important for the overall improvement. They have now reached their highest reading since the beginning of the sentix survey for Germany in 2009. Of the other regions, the US and Japan make a more negative impression, the emerging-markets regions a more positive one. Overall, it is also noteworthy that institutional investors are more careful than private investors this month. Nevertheless, the composite index for the global aggregate rises for the fourth month in a row due to the good developments in the euro zone and the emerging-markets regions.

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    Oktober 2013 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    07.10.13
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    USA weak, euro zone robust

    In October, the composite index for the euro zone drops slightly. This move by -0.4 down to 6.1 points is to be seen as a stabilisation, given the enormous rise of the past month. Meanwhile, the composite index for the US takes a nose-dive. Here, both the current assessment of the economic situation as well as the 6-month expectations of the surveyed investors take strong hits from the budget crisis. But the US remain the only problem child this month. The composite indices for the emerging-markets regions rise strongly. For Japan, optimism also continues to go up. As a result, the composite index for the global aggregate is able to gain ground for the third consecutive month and increases to a reading last seen in February.

     

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    September 2013 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    09.09.13
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    Explosive coup for the euro zone

    The composite (overall) index for Euroland rises in September by 11.3 to now +6.5 points. This is the second-strongest rise of the indicator since its inception in 2003. The index also manages to reach positive territory for the first time since July 2011. Both the assessment of the current situation as well as the 6-month expectations improve strongly. For Germany, the composite index jumps upward, too. It now reaches its highest reading since April 2011 and signals a clearly strengthening economy. The other countries and regions prove stable in September. For the emerging markets regions there is a tendency for improvement, again. The index for the global aggregate rises to its highest value since March of this year.

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    August 2013 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    05.08.13
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    The economic motor gains momentum

    The total index for Euroland rises dynamically by 7.70 points to now -4.9 points. Driven by an improved current assessment, which rises by 8.25 points, as well as more positive 6-month expectations with a plus of 7.00 points, both parts are able to gain ground. The values mirror the second-highest value of 2013 (February 2013 at -3.9 points). Germany, Japan and the USA, which had also presented themselves positively over the past months, are also part of this concert of positive news. It is positive to see that all world regions are now able to profit from the rise. Especially the Emerging Markets stopped their negative trend of the past months. The index for the globalaggregate rises to a five-month high.

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