November data stable, risks even decrease a little


The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for November remains stable. It decreases slightly to 32.7% from 33.2% in the previous month. Consequently, about one in three investors surveyed by sentix still thinks that at least one country will leave the euro zone within the next twelve months. In July the EBI had reached a high at 73.3%. The survey was conducted from November 22nd to November 24th among 925 institutional and private investors.

Among those investors who expect the euro zone to shrink within a years' time it is, as before, the great majority that expects Greece to exit the currency. The probability for a "Grexit" stands now at around 30% after 31.4 % in October. Next to Greece it is Cyprus for which the euro sceptics among the surveyed investors are most pessimistic. The EBI for Cyprus stays almost unchanged at around 10%. After that, it is Portugal and the core country Finland that follow with 3.7% each (after 4.1% and 3.9% respectively).

Overall, there were only slight changes in the country indices this month. The Greek decrease by 1.3 percentage points was the largest. Apart from that, it was only Spain which registered a noteworthy change in its EBI. The Spanish EBI went down by one percentage point to 2.7% — obviously investors anticipate that a rather slow-moving Spanish government will, after all, decide for further financial aid in the near future.

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