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sentix Investmentmeinung 26-2015

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Der hässliche Moment

Seit Jahren gibt es eine nicht gerade kleine Anzahl von Anlegern, die der Eurogruppe Konkursverschleppung vorwerfen. Und nicht wenige fordern deshalb einen Austritt Griechenlands aus der Eurozone. Andere wiederum stört das halbherzige Vorgehen der Regierungen Europas. Sie würden sich ein konsequentes, zielorientiertes Handeln wünschen. Und wiederum andere Anleger stören sich an der extremistischen Regierung in Griechenland, die nur Chaos und Unruhe in die EU trägt. Aus diesem Grund verwundert die aktuelle Aufregung um die Ankündigung eines Referendums in Griechenland schon. Denn Tsipras gelingt, was den schlauen EU-Bürokraten bislang nicht gelungen ist: eine Klärung der Lage, die eigentlich alle oben beschriebenen Meinungen zufriedenstellen müsste.

Geänderte Einschätzungen: China-Aktien, EUR-USD, USD-JPY

Klicken Sie hier für die aktuelle Investmentmeinung (sentix Registrierung erforderlich)

Investors split on euro break-up, but clear on contagion

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In June, the sentix Euro Break-up Index rises from 41.2% to 48.4%. Investors are thus almost perfectly split into two halves regarding their expectations on countries exiting the euro. In turn, they are much clearer on contagion dangers of which they think that they are barely existing.

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No panic in the euro area

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In an additional poll carried out spontaneously on Sunday we have captured the most recent sentiment as well as investors’ assessments on the current capital market situation. With this survey we have investigated not only financial mar-kets matters but also investors’ political perceptions.

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sentix ASR Essentials 26-2015

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High neutrality on near-term outlook for EZ Equities

The latest sentix survey provides a timely view of investors’ opinions moving into a week in which Grexit looms large. In terms of EUR/USD, both near-term sentiment and survey participants’ medium-term strategic bias have weakened, but only modestly in the context of current uncertainties. Investors have also become more cautious on the outlook for eurozone bonds. However, at the same time, modest optimism on the DAX and EuroSTOXX is still a feature. That said, the survey also highlights a gap in terms of the levels of uncertainty on the near-term as compared to the medium-term (see Chart 7, page 3). Behind investors’ modest optimism on the near-term outlook for eurozone indices lies a relatively high degree of underlying uncertainty (based on the sentix Neutrality Index). This suggests indices may see near-term volatility.

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More bullish signals for European equities!

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The sentix data universe makes it clear: investors commit in an increasingly strong manner to European shares. For instance, they currently plan with an investment horizon which was never longer than today. In addition, stock market participants behave rather anti-cyclically at the moment. Both is positive for the asset class.

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