sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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It is high time!

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The closer we approach the December 4th, the more does the Italian referendum occupy the minds of investors. Fears of more trouble in the Eurozone mount as Italy takes the spotlight in our monthly Euro Break-Index (EBI) survey. Surprisingly, Investors do not exclusively pick Italy as a potential exit candidate. Moreover, exit probabilities of many euro member countries are on the rise. Especially France and the Netherlands join ranks with Italy. The sentix EBI increases to 24.1%.

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Italy takes the lead

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The Eurocrisis creeps back into the heads of the investors in a new way. No longer Greece, but Italy is now the country that is most likely to leave the Eurozone within the year from the perspective of the more than 1,000 investors surveyed. This development underscores the importance of the referendum to the Constitution in Italy on December, 4th.

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Mediterranean tensions

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The fragile condition of the Eurozone has not improved in comparison to previous months. The September results draw a gloomy picture. The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) for the Eurozone rises to 16.3 points, while in the meantime contagion risks have slightly fallen. Especially the situation of the Portuguese and Greek economy continues to cause worries with investors.

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Superficial ease of tensions

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Tensions within the euro zone are easing in August. The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) has fallen -4.6 points to 15.7 points, hence, significantly below the “magic” 20 points threshold. Overall, investors believe that the risk of the euro zone falling apart has decreased as risk sensitiveness for the euro periphery had fallen simultaneously. Only the continuously weak condition of the Italian banking industry, as well as lacklustre economic dynamic in Europe, emit risks.

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Contagion risk for other countries increases

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After the Brexit shock and the obvious increase end of June the sentix EBI (Euro Break-up Index) calms down by the end of the month July 2016. The decline of 6.8 points to 20.3 points should not hide the fact that the value is still higher than before the Brexit referendum. The obvious calm in the capital markets does not seem to mean, the risk for a break-up of the euro zone has sustainably given away. In the background the risk of contagion rather increases. Several countries like Finland or Italy reach new annual highs in the country-EBI-indices.

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