sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

Access to all charts for regsitered sentix voters

France relaxed

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The first election round to the French presidential election has appeased investors' minds. Only 13.6% of investors are now expecting the euro to break-up, after 18.7% in the previous month. For France, the probability of an Euro ex-it (“Frexit”) decreases to 3.5% after an high of 8,4% end of February. However, Greece and Italy remain the most likely potential candidates for exit.

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Conditional Relief

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The situation in the Eurozone significantly calms after the general elections in the Netherlands. The surprising weak turnout for the Eurosceptic Wilder party is the reason for investors to reconsider their pessimism about the union. In March, the sentix Euro break up Index eases below the 20-percentage point mark. Contagion risks, in contrast, remain high.

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The threatening three

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After two years absence, the euro-crisis is back in the spotlight. However, this time is different. The protagonists have multiplied as France and Italy now join Greece as likely exit candidates. The sentix indicator that measures the risk of contagion jumps for the first time since 2012/13 above 45% which puts politics under pressure to curtail the crisis from spreading further.

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Elections are the focus of attention

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The start of the new year is accompanied by ongoing euro skepticism. This is also helped by the important elections in the coming months. The EBI figures for the Netherlands and France, which are noticeably rising, show just how much investors are looking for "correct" choice of options. Overall, the likelihood that a country will leave the euro remains high at 21.3%.

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Some rielief

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The data on the Sentix Euro Break-up Index, which was collected shortly before Christmas, show a certain relief. The fact that Italy has a recapitalization of the deprecated bank Monte dei Paschi reduces the exit probability for Italy, if only slightly. The fact that the dangers for the Eurozone are by no means banished is shown by a look at the conta-gion risk index.

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