sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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Rest before the Bundestag elections. But after that?

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There is peace on the Euro front. At least this was the case before the Bundestag elections. The sentix Euro break-up index dropped slightly again to 7.66% in September. This is the lowest value since July 2014, when the all-time low of the index was reached at 7.61%. All major country indices have yielded in line with this tendency. But whether this peaceful state still holds after the election is questionable.

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Amazingly relaxed

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Investors look at the Eurozone with astonishing serenity. Neither the prospect of an early ending of the ECB purchase program nor the decision of the Karlsruhe Constitutional Court (referral to the European Court of Justice) or the political ideas in Italy (introduction of a double currency) have unsettled investors. The sentix Euro Break-up In-dex drops to 8.0% (from 8.9%) and the sub-index for Italy also drops from 5.5% to 4.6%!

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Stabilized Eurozone

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During the silly season, political topics are scarce goods in Euroland. In fact, awareness is completely focused on the stabilization of the Euro. This is an indication for investors that the Eurozone solidarity is increasingly stable. In this environment, the Euroland overall index of the sentix Euro break-up index has hardly changed. Its marginal adjustment in July from 8.6% to 8.9% shall not be interpreted turn around or warning signal, but rather is due to its meanwhile low value. This can also be seen in low values of measured exit risks of individual Eurozone countries.

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France provides momentum for the eurozone

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Following the French parliament elections, the fears of a break-up of the eurozone continue to decline. The overall Euroland index fell back to 8.6% (before:11.4%), the lowest level since September 2014. In particular, the Greek sub-index continued its dynamic recreation. This trend could be also noticed for the Italian sub-index. The general trend of reassurance could not be transferred to the index, which measures the contagion risk. It rose from around 34% to 38%.

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Reduced risk of contagion

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Following the French presidential elections, investors' perception of the euro crisis has once again relaxed considerably. The overall Euroland index fell to 11.4%, the lowest since autumn 2015. While the Greek sub-index remains virtually unchanged, the probability of exit from France and Italy drops significantly. As a result, the risk of contagion is reduced to around 34%.

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