sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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A warm welcome for Madame Lagarde

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Even before the new President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, will chair her first Council meeting and explain the de-cisions taken at a press conference, investors will form first narratives. One such narrative is that Madame Lagarde seeks to stand shoulder to shoulder with politics. This strengthens the cohesion of the Eurozone from the investors' point of view.

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A quiet farewell

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The term of office of ECB President Mario Draghi was dominated by the struggle for the stability of the euro area. While the ECB was still confronted with serious doubts about stability in 2012, the situation has changed significantly to this day. The sentix Euro Break-up Index is close to its all-time low.

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Draghi does it again

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The ECB's decision to revive the bond purchase programme is probably one of the reasons why the euro break-up risk was further reduced in September. The overall index for the euro zone fell to 6.5%, its lowest level since April 2018. The sub-index for Italy also fell sharply to just 4.7%.

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Latent residual risk

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Despite the uncertainties about the development of the Euro zone economy and the approaching Brexit, investors are relatively unaffected in terms of Euro stability. The sentix Euro Break-up Index remains almost unchanged at 9.0 points. However, the index for the risk of contagion shows that a return of the Euro uncertainty is still not averted.

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Risk of contagion continues to decrease

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In Euroland, summer rest begins. Following the European elections and the filling of government positions in the EU, Italy has also recently brought some relief. This is reflected in the Euro Break-up Index, which at 8.9 points once again falls below the 10 percent threshold. The easing is even more visible in the index, which measures the risk of contagion. This one marks a new three-year low.

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