sentix Euro Break-up Index News

On this page we provide information about the latest development of the sentix Euro break-up Index. This indicator shows over time, how likely individual and institutional investors rate the probabilty of a breakup of the euro area (leaving at least one country) within 12 months time. Also it reflects which countries are particularly affected.

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Contagion risk for other countries increases

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After the Brexit shock and the obvious increase end of June the sentix EBI (Euro Break-up Index) calms down by the end of the month July 2016. The decline of 6.8 points to 20.3 points should not hide the fact that the value is still higher than before the Brexit referendum. The obvious calm in the capital markets does not seem to mean, the risk for a break-up of the euro zone has sustainably given away. In the background the risk of contagion rather increases. Several countries like Finland or Italy reach new annual highs in the country-EBI-indices.

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The Brexit becomes a Euro stress test

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The unexpected vote of UK citizens wanting to leave the European Union, is also likely to hard shake the foundation of the euro again. Almost a third of investors responding in the sentix survey hold it again possible that the euro zone could break up within twelve months. In addition, new exit candidates appear on the horizon.

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Investors underestimate the “Brexit” risk

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The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) for may reflects improvements within the euro zone. Based on declining stress levels in the euro-periphery investors perceive the odds continue to shift in favour for the cohesion of the single currency area. However, a potential “Brexit” would cause significant turmoil.

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Investors view a “Brexit” as a growing concern for the EU

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The sentix Euro Breakup Index (EBI) remains unchanged at 16.7% in April. The force behind the persistent break-up risks remains unfavourable news from the Aegean. Though, investors shift their attention to the European Union level amid an intensifying “Brexit” debate. As investors only see a moderate probability for a “Brexit”, however, the associated risks could threaten the stability of the EU.

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Relief in times of trouble

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The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) has surprisingly fallen to 16.7 points in March. This reflects the first reduction in Eurozone skepticism since six months ago. Risk reduction has been propelled by a more bullish view on Greece’s perceived current situation.

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