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    September 2014 Eco Report

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    08.09.14
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    Euro-zone index collapses again – despite Draghi

    Despite the new measures taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) last Thursday the composite index for the euro zone collapses. It falls from +2.7 to now only -9.8 points. As both, the assessment of the current situation and investors' 6-month expectations, now have reached negative territory, the indicator signals a new recession for the euro area! This is all the more noteworthy as during Mario Draghi's presidency the ECB has managed on several occasions to turn round investors' economic expectations. Now, this does not seem to work anymore. In this context it is interesting to know that 6-month expectations of the global aggregate have fallen to their lowest level since November 2012, the time when Japan started its "Abenomics" and managed to influence investors' expectations positively. But obviously central banks have currently – against the backdrop of a number of geopolitical conflicts – lost their power to steer investors' economic expectations.

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    August 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    04.08.14
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    The Russia Effect – Germany sends a cyclical downturn alarm

    The sentix economic indices leave their mark with a strong drop in August! The total index for Euroland is reduced by 10.1 to now only 2.7 points. The economic expectations put especially strong pressure on the total index. A surprising drop by 13.3 points is founded on the EU's economic sanctions against Russia. The German index feels this effect in particular: the total index there drops even more strongly from 29.0 points to now only 17.9 points. Here, expectations lose 13.1 points and are now negative for the first time since November 2012 at -1.3 points. The USA and Asia ex Japan are fighting against the trend – however, their expectational components drop, also. All these slumps are founded in the Ukraine crisis which is now radiating out more and more strongly. The index for Eastern Europe drops to -12 points and, with that, into recession mode.

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    July 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    07.07.14
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    Global economic momentum helps the euro zone

    After having receded for two months in a row, the sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro zone in-creases again in July by 1.6 to now 10.1 points. On the one hand, investors assess the current economic situation as being better than last month. On the other hand, 6-month expectations also increase slightly after having weakened for four consecutive months. This stabilisation of expectations coincides with a European Central Bank taking new expansionary monetary measures. But a probably more important impact for the euro zone comes from the world economy as expectations improve even more strongly for the other regions in the survey. Posi-tive developments are especially pronounced for the US and for Japan. This should also have had a positive in-fluence on investors' judgments concerning the euro area, too. Consequently, the euro zone now seems to bene-fit from a stronger world economy, while it was itself a prominent motor of global growth until just a few months ago.

     

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    June 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    08.06.14
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    Euro-zone expectations drop despite Draghi

    For the euro zone the sentix Economic Index (composite index) drops markedly in June. This is its second decrease in a row. Investors judge the current situation much worse than in the previous month, and their 6-monthexpectations also decline. The clear setback of the euro-zone index surprises as, in June, investors assess the economic conditions for the remaining world regions as better than before. It is mainly the emerging markets for which their sentiment brightens. The euro-zone indicators' decrease all the more comes as a surprise as the European Central Bank has just announced a whole package of new measures to push economic growth and inflation. But investors so far do not see this aspect of the ECB's policy while they do expect strong effects on the bond market, as complementary sentix data show.

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    May 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    05.05.14
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    Expectations fall across the board

    Last month we pointed to the fact that the German economy had lost steam and had probably seen its best times in the current upswing already. Now, it looks as if the economy of the euro zone will suffer the same fate: While assessments of the current situation continue their way up, investors' 6-month expectations are down markedly in May. They fall for the third time in a row. This usually hints at a trend reversal.

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    April 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    07.04.14
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    German economy loses steam

    The sentix economic index (composite index) for Germany falls in April for the third time in a row. While 6-monthexpectations have been dragging down the indicator over the past months, it is now also the assessment of the current situation which is not lending support to the composite index anymore. The German economy thus loses steam. The big question now is how the euro-zone economy will react to this. Still, it is looking robust: The composite index for the euro area increases, once more, slightly. But expectations are down a little for the second consecutive month. For the rest of the world sentiment is improving slightly in April. Investors are again more upbeat for the Emerging markets regions after last month's Crimean crisis shock. Also do they see improvements for the US. But sorrows are growing for Japan: Here, the composite index falls markedly for the third time in a row. 6-monthexpectations for Japan's economy have now reached a level last seen in November 2012. That was exactly the time when the so-called "Abenomics" started to take effects on investors' confidence. Their positive impact has obviously faded now.

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    March 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    10.03.14
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    Robust, but heterogeneous

    The sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro zone rises again in March and climbs from 13.3 to 13.9 points. This development is driven by investors' assessments of the current situation, while 6-month expecta-tions fall for the first time since September. For Germany, expectations decline for the third month in a row. Nevertheless, the composite index still signals that the German economy is in the middle of boom. In the rest of the world things look rather mixed: Against the background of the Crimean crisis the sentix economic index for Eastern Europe drops strongly. But it rises for the two other emerging-markets regions, Asia ex Japan and Latin America. For the US, investors' opinions remain almost unchanged, while for Japan sentiment worsens further. The composite index for the global aggregate stays at a constant level, but the relatively high heterogeneity between countries and regions points to an increased uncertainty among investors and blurs the overall picture.

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    February 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    10.02.14
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    Euro zone counters global drop in sentiment

    A little surprisingly, the sentix economic index (composite index) for the euro area continues its upward trend in February, rising by 1.4 to 13.3 points. It is mainly the current situation which is assessed in a better way than in the previous month by the almost 1,000 individual and institutional investors in the sentix survey. The correspondent index now reaches positive territory for the first time since August 2011. The increase of the composite index for the euro zone is all the more remarkable as investors perceive a clear drop in economic activity on a global level. Especially for the emerging markets they become more skeptical. But also for Japan sentiment is muted.

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    January 2014 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    07.01.14
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    The Euro zone leaves its crisis behind

    The composite index for the euro zone rises by 3.9 to 11.9 points in January. This increase is the strongest of a composite index in January among all surveyed countries and regions. It is also noteworthy that the assessment of the current situation for the euro zone improves markedly and has now entered neutral territory. Consequently, at the start of 2014 Euroland finally leaves its crisis behind. Looking at other countries and regions, the composite index for Germany – which celebrates its fifth anniversary this month – rises slightly from 32.1 to 32.4 points. Germany thus remains the growth engine for the euro zone. The generally positive picture at the beginning of the year is only blurred by the figures for Asia ex Japan. Nevertheless, the composite index for the global aggregate increases for the sixth month in a row.

     

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    December 2013 Eco Report (Engl.)

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    09.12.13
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    Germany takes off, the euro zone a breather

    The composite index for the euro area drops in November from 9.3 to 8.0 points. The reason for this is a slightly clouded perception of the economic situation. Investor expectations rise, however, to their highest reading since April 2006! Germany once again defies the development of the euro zone aggregate. The composite index for Germany rises by around two to now 32.1 points and, with that, to its highest reading since December 2010. Expectations climb, as they did last month, to new all-time highs (since the introduction of the survey now almost five years ago). This month's winner, however, is the USA. For the US, the composite index rises by over 10 points. This, in turn, drives the composite index for the global aggregate, which rises for the fifth consecutive month and has now reached a level last seen in April 2011.

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