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March 2025 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.03.25
- File Size:
- 437 KB
Unique decoupling
The announcement of debt-financed armaments programmes (EU and Germany) and infrastructure investments (Germany) has investors positively euphoric about further economic development. The sentix economic index for the euro area rises by 9.8 points to -2.9 points. At the same time, we are witnessing a historic crash in US eco-nomic indicators, the likes of which we have only seen during the 2008 financial crisis. The US expectations index falls for the third time in a row by 25.8 points to -17.8 points. How realistic and sustainable are both investor-designed scenarios?
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February 2025 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.02.25
- File Size:
- 372 KB
A little more confidence - despite tariffs
The "first mover" among the economic indicators reflects somewhat more confidence for the eurozone in February. The overall index rose from -17.7 points to -12.7 points. Although the assessment of the current situation remains in the deep red zone, it also increased by 4.0 points. Economic expectations for the next 6 months, on the other hand, rose more dynamically by +6.0 points and exceeded the magic zero line for the first time since July 2024 with an index level of +1.0 points. The German economy is also benefiting from this confidence. Expectations have improved by +8.0 points, while the situation assessment remains recessive. Hopes are based on a political turnaround after the federal elections on 23rd February 2025. Internationally, the outlook is also improving: in the US, the economic picture remains robust. The figures for Japan and the Asia ex Japan region have also risen. The renewed rise in Latin America and the signs of easing in Eastern Europe are also striking.
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January 2025 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.01.25
- File Size:
- 413 KB
New year, old problems
We wish all our readers a Happy New Year. However, the ‘first mover’ among the economic indicators is not yet showing any new momentum. In the eurozone, the economic engine is at risk of freezing up permanently. The situation values fall by a full index point to -29.5 points. At least expectations are rising slightly, so that the over-all index, at -17.7 points, indicates only a small decline. A stabilisation at an insufficiently weak level. By contrast, the US economy remains robust, even though the Trump euphoria has cooled. Slightly positive signals can be re-ported from Latin America. This is likely to be largely due to the first successes of the liberal President of Argentina, Javier Milei.
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December 2024 results
- Uploaded:
- 08.12.24
- File Size:
- 378 KB
No mood of optimism in the EU, Trump mania in the USA
In December, there are weak economic signals for the eurozone from the first mover. The overall index for the euro-zone fell by 4.6 points to -17.5 points, the lowest value since November 2023. Both the current situation and expec-tations values fell. There is also serious disappointment to report in the German data: Following the announcement of new elections to the German Bundestag, there is no mood of optimism. The assessment of the current situation fell to -50.8 points, the lowest index level since June 2020, meaning that the recession remains omnipresent, espe-cially as expectations also fell by 0.8 points. Conversely, the US data stands out positively. Investors are expecting strong momentum following the inauguration of the new president. This reaction can really be described as ‘Trump mania’.
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November 2024 results
- Uploaded:
- 03.11.24
- File Size:
- 413 KB
Germany's crisis is not shocking
The news is coming thick and fast in Germany at the moment. It has taken a long time for the economy and the media to wake up and increase the pressure on politics. Perhaps it is the hope that this will lay the groundwork for better times ahead. In any case, even the German economic data is improving a little. The composite index for Germany rose by 1.7 points. For the euro zone, this also means a slight recovery in the overall index to -12.8 points. Investors are also optimistic about the US economy in view of the upcoming US presidential elections, with the overall index rising for the third time in a row. China, on the other hand, still has to prove itself.
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October 2024 results
- Uploaded:
- 06.10.24
- File Size:
- 369 KB
China stimulus provides (moderate) tailwind
The downward economic trend has been halted for the time being. All regions of the world are showing signs of improvement: the overall index for the eurozone rose from -15.4 to -13.8 points in October after three consecutive declines. While the current situation index in the eurozone once again plumbed a new low for the year, the expectations index rose to -3.8 points. The eurozone economy is thus starting its next attempt to find its way out of recession/stagnation. The German economy remains in recession mode for the time being. On a positive note, however, the expectation values show an improvement with a plus of 6.8 points. The domestic economy is benefiting from the global economic trend: Asia ex Japan (China) in particular is showing positive momentum. However, the USA and Japan are also signalling an economic revival.
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September 2024 results
- Uploaded:
- 08.09.24
- File Size:
- 417 KB
Germany chaos
The drama surrounding the German economy is heading for another climax in September. The situation values plummeted by a whopping 5.3 points to -48 points. The recession is raging ever stronger. Tragically, the expectation values are also falling, demonstrating the hopelessness of investors looking at the EU heavyweight. Although the overall eurozone index is not immune in this context, the decline is comparatively small at -1.5 points. Nevertheless, the eurozone is struggling with dangerous recessionary tendencies ‘thanks to Germany’. The situa-tion in the rest of the world is also weakening, but investors here are somewhat more optimistic in their expectations.
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August 2024 results
- Uploaded:
- 04.08.24
- File Size:
- 374 KB
Massive global slump
Following the severe setback of the "first mover" in the previous month, there is now another, more pronounced economic slump in August. The global recovery comes to a halt. The sentix economic index for the eurozone fell by a whopping 6.6 points. The overall index now stands at -13.9 points, the lowest level since January 2024, with expectations falling even more sharply by 10.3 points. Germany in particular is in a nosedive. The overall index lost a whopping 12.0 points. The current assessment even deteriorated to -42.8 points, the worst value since June 2020! The expectations component plummeted to -18.5 points. The recession bells are ringing once again in Germany. Signs of fatigue are also evident in the USA: The overall index loses 9.0 points for the fourth time in a row. Expectations also indicate an accelerated slowdown. The rest of the world, including the Asian region, is lagging behind.
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July 2024 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.07.24
- File Size:
- 371 KB
Bitter setback
The recent recovery of the European economy has come to an abrupt end. After eight consecutive improvements, the sentix economic index for the eurozone fell by a whopping 7.6 points in July. Expectations slumped by 8.5 points to 1.5 points. The moderate economic momentum in Germany is also faltering again. The positive mood due to the European Football Championship 2024 is not spilling over into the economy. The already gloomy assessment of the situation deteriorated to -32.3 points, while expectations fell to -4.8 points below the April value. The French elections are contributing to the growing concern, as is the increasing slowdown in the US economy. The overall index for the US fell for the third time in a row to its lowest value since January 2024. Expectations are now also negative there at -2.5 points.
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June 2024 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.06.24
- File Size:
- 375 KB
Upswing without momentum - 8th rise in a row
The sentix economic index for the eurozone continued its recovery trend in June: however, the recovery is only proceeding slowly in triple steps. With the eighth increase in a row, the overall index has only just reached the zero line. Nevertheless, at +0.3 points, it is no longer negative for the first time since February 2022. However, the situation values remain in negative territory despite the increase (-9.0 points), while the expectations component rose by 2.2 points to +10.0 points. This means that the Eurozone has significantly better economic momentum than the USA. Although the current situation there is still considered to be extremely good at +28.3 points, the 6-month expectations have fallen slightly and are only showing a small increase (+2.3 points). Nevertheless, the level of expansion is likely to be maintained overall. Internationally, the "Asia ex-Japan" region is still convincing. The expectations component there has risen for the eighth time in a row to 19.5 points.
