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March 2016 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.03.16
- File Size:
- 1 MB
Eurozone cooling, global stabilisation
The sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone continues to fall in March 2016. The overall index looses 0.5 points to +5.5 points. The overall Eurozone decline is caused by a deteriorating current situation (the value is down by 2.2 points) whereas the expectation value advances by 1.3 points. A look abroad gives more reasons to cheer this time: values for Asia ex. Japan could recover the second month in a row. Moreover, the US economy exhibits resilience in March as the current situation value rises to 21.75 points (up by 4.75 points). In total, the overall US index rises to 5.8 points. Moreover, the global index finally gains ground on the back of a recovery in Asia ex. Japan, Eastern Europe as well as in Latin-America.
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February 2016 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.02.16
- File Size:
- 492 KB
Global economy on the brink
Who thought the collapse of sentix-economic indices in January were a one-time event will be disappointed with the February data. Although the values for Asia ex Japan recover something, this month results do not shape a fundamentally new image. In particular, the loss of momentum in Germany and the United States weighs heavily and stresses that the global economy is now in a very fragile state.
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January 2016 Results
- Uploaded:
- 10.01.16
- File Size:
- 1 MB
After New Year’s Eve yet another china cracker
That’s not what many investors have expected: right at the start of 2016, investors have to farewell certainties of 2015. Dark clouds arise in the east and could carry more than just light showers. it seems undoubtedly reasonable that the Chinese business cycle face a period of significant slow down, rather it seems like a hard landing. Such a scenario would not pass the Eurozone without damage.
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December 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 06.12.15
- File Size:
- 355 KB
No ECB money, no funny
Economic expectations for the Eurozone continue to rise contrary to the global trend. Amid slightly lower growth in global economic momentum, the Eurozone stands out. Explanations should be found in the latest ECB statement. The December round of ECB stimulus felt short of expectations, however, the embracement of ECB’s “whatever it takes massage” has worked yet again. Without more ECB stimulus the Eurozone would most likely be in accordance to the global outlook.
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November 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 08.11.15
- File Size:
- 373 KB
Recovery is back on track
Sentix captures a significant sentiment swing regarding global economic expectations in November. Neither signs of a seasonal depression of investors’ mood nor a November bias can be traced in the latest sentix data. With the exception of Austria, investors’ economic expectations rise for all major world regions. Of particular significance is the change of economic trend in Asia ex. Japan. Apparently, Chinese administration has been successful in restoring confidence in the potential of the Chinese economy.
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October 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 05.10.15
- File Size:
- 391 KB
The west follows the emerging markets
The sentix Economic Indices on the Eurozone are lower again for October. Both, economic expectations as well as current situation values have dropped. Economic expectations for Germany are lower – the current situation values approach the zero-line alarmingly fast (1.8 points). The Eurozone headline index sinks to 11.7 points from previously 13.6 points, the lowest reading since January. The values for the USA are in decline. All index components edge down as economic expectations decline to +2.3 points. The only glimmers of hope are the emerging markets as values stabilise at low levels.
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September 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 06.09.15
- File Size:
- 234 KB
Economic expectations collapse globally
In September, the sentix Economic Indices drop significantly driven by strongly falling indicators for Japan and for Asia ex Japan. Against the background of the turbulences in China investors cut back strongly their assessments and expectations regarding these regions' economies. Furhermore, the rest of the world enters the maelstrom. While for Latin America and Eastern Europe ever darker clouds gather now also the economic expectations for the hitherto stability anchors, the US and the euro area, fall markedly.
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August 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 10.08.15
- File Size:
- 674 KB
Asia a burden on global economic momentum
Uncertainties regarding further development on the Chinese stock markets are now also heavily impacting economic expectations for the Asia (ex Japan) region, which have fallen considerably and are now at the September 2012 level. This weakness is expanding increasingly to other regions, causing expectations for all other observed countries and regions (except Austria and Switzerland) to decline as well.
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July 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 05.07.15
- File Size:
- 386 KB
Euro zone defies Greek crisis
Despite the increasing confusion surrounding the fate of Greece the composite index for the euro zone rises in July. While investors’ 6-month expectations remain about stable, their assessments of the current situation improve significantly. This constellation signals that market participants already behave as if the euro area was in a boom! In addition, the strong rise of the US index stands out. At the same time, though, the picture for the emerging-markets regions gets ever cloudier which, all in all, points to a world economy losing further steam.
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June 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 08.06.15
- File Size:
- 389 KB
Global momentum fades, but Japan takes off
All in all, sentix Economic Indices point to lower dynamics in the world economy indicated by weaker 6-month expectations for the Global Aggregate. However, developments are rather heterogeneous among the regions: While investors trim back their expectations for the euro area and for Germany, they raise them for Japan and the US. And, at the same time, as a rate hike by the Fed this year becomes more probable, investors’ perspec-tives for the emerging-markets regions get cloudy.
