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November 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 08.11.15
- File Size:
- 373 KB
Recovery is back on track
Sentix captures a significant sentiment swing regarding global economic expectations in November. Neither signs of a seasonal depression of investors’ mood nor a November bias can be traced in the latest sentix data. With the exception of Austria, investors’ economic expectations rise for all major world regions. Of particular significance is the change of economic trend in Asia ex. Japan. Apparently, Chinese administration has been successful in restoring confidence in the potential of the Chinese economy.
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October 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 05.10.15
- File Size:
- 391 KB
The west follows the emerging markets
The sentix Economic Indices on the Eurozone are lower again for October. Both, economic expectations as well as current situation values have dropped. Economic expectations for Germany are lower – the current situation values approach the zero-line alarmingly fast (1.8 points). The Eurozone headline index sinks to 11.7 points from previously 13.6 points, the lowest reading since January. The values for the USA are in decline. All index components edge down as economic expectations decline to +2.3 points. The only glimmers of hope are the emerging markets as values stabilise at low levels.
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September 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 06.09.15
- File Size:
- 234 KB
Economic expectations collapse globally
In September, the sentix Economic Indices drop significantly driven by strongly falling indicators for Japan and for Asia ex Japan. Against the background of the turbulences in China investors cut back strongly their assessments and expectations regarding these regions' economies. Furhermore, the rest of the world enters the maelstrom. While for Latin America and Eastern Europe ever darker clouds gather now also the economic expectations for the hitherto stability anchors, the US and the euro area, fall markedly.
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August 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 10.08.15
- File Size:
- 674 KB
Asia a burden on global economic momentum
Uncertainties regarding further development on the Chinese stock markets are now also heavily impacting economic expectations for the Asia (ex Japan) region, which have fallen considerably and are now at the September 2012 level. This weakness is expanding increasingly to other regions, causing expectations for all other observed countries and regions (except Austria and Switzerland) to decline as well.
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July 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 05.07.15
- File Size:
- 386 KB
Euro zone defies Greek crisis
Despite the increasing confusion surrounding the fate of Greece the composite index for the euro zone rises in July. While investors’ 6-month expectations remain about stable, their assessments of the current situation improve significantly. This constellation signals that market participants already behave as if the euro area was in a boom! In addition, the strong rise of the US index stands out. At the same time, though, the picture for the emerging-markets regions gets ever cloudier which, all in all, points to a world economy losing further steam.
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June 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 08.06.15
- File Size:
- 389 KB
Global momentum fades, but Japan takes off
All in all, sentix Economic Indices point to lower dynamics in the world economy indicated by weaker 6-month expectations for the Global Aggregate. However, developments are rather heterogeneous among the regions: While investors trim back their expectations for the euro area and for Germany, they raise them for Japan and the US. And, at the same time, as a rate hike by the Fed this year becomes more probable, investors’ perspec-tives for the emerging-markets regions get cloudy.
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May 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 04.05.15
- File Size:
- 413 KB
Eastern Europe helps Austria
In a particularly remarkable way the composite index for Austria rises this month. It signals that after a long peri-od of weakness a recovery has returned to the country. An important reason for this should be the relaxation of the tensions in Ukraine. Austria benefits strongly from economic improvements in Eastern Europe as it has firm ties with the region. Apart from this, the upturn in the euro area stabilises. And while the assessment of the cur-rent US situation weakens, 6-month expectations for the United States are back on the rise!
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April 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 06.04.15
- File Size:
- 482 KB
US dollar is a burden for the US economy
Both the current situation and the expectation values of the US economy have slowed this month. From the per-spective of investors surveyed by sentix thus, show in the US economy increasingly sanding marks, which the strong dollar may well explain. Somewhat surprisingly, however, is that we measure a significant damper for the German economy. Particularly as the rest of the euro zone is in a robust constitution. For the Euro zone, the cur-rent situation index rises to its highest level since 2011. Furthermore, the overall index improves as well.
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March 2015 Results
- Uploaded:
- 09.03.15
- File Size:
- 450 KB
Growth back in the euro zone
The euro-zone economy sends clear signals of strength. Investors’ assessments of the current situation have climbed to their highest since May 2014. But what is even more important is the continued strong improvement of investors’ 6-month expectations which show their highest reading since February 2006. This gives hope that this time the recovery is a more sustainable one enabling the euro zone to finally leave its recessionary tendencies behind. Germany remains the area’s growth engine. On a global level, it is the US which shows some signs of slowing down, probably a result of the ever stronger US dollar.
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February 2015 Eco Report
- Uploaded:
- 09.02.15
- File Size:
- 370 KB
Euro area with a 9-year-high, Switzerland in recession
In February the composite indices for the euro zone and Germany both rise strongly. Against the background of the details given by the ECB on its coming QE programme 6-month expectations climb to their highest reading since February 2006 for the euro zone. For Germany the composite index even reaches an all-time high. The weak euro and the low price of oil may also have helped (as in the previous months). But this positive development al-so has a flipside: The weakness of the euro has led the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to give up on its de-facto peg to the common currency. By doing so, the SNB has sent the Swiss economy into recession – that is at least what the sentix Economic Index for Switzerland says as it collapses this month. For the “Global Aggregate” the composite index increases for the fourth time in a row because of the improvements for the euro zone and for Japan. At the same time, the slight setback for the US might be an indication that the US economy has peaked already in the current cycle.
