sentix Weekly (German)
Folder: 2023 and before
Files:
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Indicator in Focus: bond market preferences
- Uploaded:
- 28.04.15
- File Size:
- 170 KB
Bond investors forced into ultra-long maturities
As yields approach the zero line for 10-year bunds investors are looking for ever longer maturities. This is the bottom-line from last weekend’s sentix survey on investors’ duration preferences. Their bias for German government bonds with a maturity of more than ten years is currently as strong as never before.
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sentix Euro Break-up Index April 2015
- Uploaded:
- 28.04.15
- File Size:
- 171 KB
Draghi put to the test: one out of two investors expects a “Grexit”
In April, the sentix Euro Break-up Index jumps to 49.0% from a previous 36.8%. Thus, European politicians’ promises to pursue the scenario of Greece keeping the euro are not taken at face value by about the half of all investors. In 2012 Mario Draghi calmed down investors with his ultimate commitment to the euro. But is his pledge still valid for Greece today?
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Indicator in focus: sentiment for German equities
- Uploaded:
- 21.04.15
- File Size:
- 228 KB
A hangover after the party – sentiment collapses
Sentiment for German equities has cooled down dramatically after the party the week before. Such a negative impulse is often followed by falling prices. But there is important reasons why a correction should not occur this time.
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Indicator in focus: utilities
- Uploaded:
- 14.04.15
- File Size:
- 163 KB
Utilities – a contrarian opportunity
sentix Sector Sentiment for European utilities stocks falls further and now stands close to its all-time low. At the same time the sector’s performance stabilises. As a result, a contrarian opportunity arises.
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sentix Euro Break-up Index March 2015
- Uploaded:
- 30.03.15
- File Size:
- 155 KB
The current policy stabilizes the Eurozone, not Greece
The probability for a break-up of the Euro area declined slightly in recent weeks. Nevertheless, with a reading of 36.8% the sentix Euro Break-up index is still on a remarkable high level. The prolongation of the “program” for Greece by the Euro area finance ministers did not make a big difference in terms of Greece. Indeed, it matters for the rest of the Euro member states as the “contagion risk index” shows.
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Indicator in focus: growth stocks
- Uploaded:
- 27.03.15
- File Size:
- 165 KB
Growth stocks getting popular
According to the latest sentix data, investors’ preferences for growth stocks climb to a 26-month high. This reflects investors’ increasing risk appetite. Market participants obviously have left their quest for safety behind – a stance which was extremely pronounced during last fall.
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Indicator in focus: overconfidence index, German stocks
- Uploaded:
- 27.03.15
- File Size:
- 172 KB
“Overconfidence Index” signals danger for German stocks from the back
The sentix data display a rare peculiarity this week: the sentix Overconfidence Index for German technology stocks has climbed to a record high. It now signals an extreme trend perception among investors which may lead to complacency and overconfidence. In the past, such high readings were pointing to problems lying ahead.
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Indicator in focus: inflation expectations
- Uploaded:
- 27.03.15
- File Size:
- 150 KB
The comeback of inflation? sentix index signals a trend reversal!
The latest sentix indices show a very remarkable development: because of the ECB’s aggressive monetary policy investors expect any increase in yields to be prevented. The same investors also think that inflation will pick up soon. Obvi-ously they ignore the consequences of a return of inflation for the bond markets. This is a risk.
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Indicator in focus: bond market preferences
- Uploaded:
- 03.03.15
- File Size:
- 138 KB
Desperate investors: long-term bonds as popular as never before
Record-low yields drive investors into ever longer maturities of German government bonds. This situation is mirrored by the sentix Curve Preference Index: While investors’ dislike of mid-term bonds has reached a new extreme, market participants now find bonds with maturities of more than 10 years as attractive as never before – although their yields have touched new all-time lows, too. This shows how desperate bond investors’ are in the current low-yield environment.
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sentix Euro Break-up Index, February 2015
- Uploaded:
- 03.03.15
- File Size:
- 158 KB
„Grexit" more probable despite new programme
The sentix Euro Break-up Index for February rises strongly from 24.3% to 38.0%. Despite the solution which was found last week for Greece ever more investors expect the Mediterranean country to leave the euro soon. Also, for Cyprus the exit probability increases markedly. And, in the background, the lately surprisingly firm confidence in Portugal and Spain is eroding, too.
