China stimulus provides (moderate) tailwind

Written by Patrick Hussy | 06 October 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The downward economic trend has been halted for the time being. All regions of the world are showing signs of improvement: the overall index for the eurozone rose from -15.4 to -13.8 points in October after three consecutive declines. While the current situation index in the eurozone once again plumbed a new low for the year, the expectations index rose to -3.8 points. The eurozone economy is thus starting its next attempt to find its way out of recession/stagnation. The German economy remains in recession mode for the time being. On a positive note, however, the expectation values show an improvement with a plus of 6.8 points. The domestic economy is benefiting from the global economic trend: Asia ex Japan (China) in particular is showing positive momentum. However, the USA and Japan are also signalling an economic revival.

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sentix Survey results (40-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 06 October 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

The Strategic bias in equities is rising significantly

During the Chinese holiday week, investors' fundamental confidence in equities improved globally. Institutional investors in particular are reacting very positively in their strategic bias, which statistically indicates rising equity prices. At the same time, sentiment is cooling off in the short term, causing the TD indices to fall as well. We are also measuring bias signals in bonds and the currency market, while the oil sentiment is very bullish.

Further results

• EUR-USD: Reversal in the strategic bias
• Crude oil: Bullish sentiment
• sentix Economic Index: Monday, 7^th oct. 2024, 10:30am CET

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sentix Survey results (39-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 29 September 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

The China party continues

The mood on the stock markets has improved significantly. We measure the highest optimism for US equities this year. Investors are also acting accordingly bullish. The equity ratios have also increased. This is likely to dampen the short-term price outlook. We experienced a bang over the course of the week for Chinese equities. Here, we measure an increase in sentiment of 42 percentage points, more than ever before in a week.

Further results

• Bonds: attractiveness is waning across the entire curve
• Silver: the China party continues
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

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sentix Survey results (38-2024)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 22 September 2024
Posted in sentix Weekly

Loss of confidence in bonds

Investors in the bond market are not happy about the interest rate cuts by the Fed and the ECB. The basic strategic confidence is collapsing significantly, thus promoting profit-taking in bonds. Investors are apparently worried that inflation could make a comeback. For equities, we are seeing signals of an interim consolidation. There is also a sentiment signal for EUR-USD.

Further results

• Equities: Too many bulls in the US stock market
• EUR-USD: Bullish sentiment
• sentix Styles - Investor preferences & behavior

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Germany chaos

Written by Manfred Hübner | 09 September 2024
Posted in sentix Economic News

The drama surrounding the German economy is heading for another climax in September. The situation values plummeted by a whopping 5.3 points to -48 points. The recession is raging ever stronger. Tragically, the expectation values are also falling, demonstrating the hopelessness of investors looking at the EU heavyweight. Although the overall eurozone index is not immune in this context, the decline is comparatively small at -1.5 points. Nevertheless, the eurozone is struggling with dangerous recessionary tendencies ‘thanks to Germany’. The situation in the rest of the world is also weakening, but investors here are somewhat more optimistic in their expectations.

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