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    September 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    04.09.22
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    679 KB

    A very deep recession?!

    The general conditions for the global economy continued to deteriorate at the beginning of September. While in Europe the signs have been pointing to a considerable recession for some time, there are now increasing signs of a corresponding development at the global level. The sentix business cycle indices for all regions and countries under consideration are deteriorating. The third decline in the values for China is of particular importance. But the recessionary environment is also deepening in the Eurozone.

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    August 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    07.08.22
    File Size:
    411 KB

    Unchanged picture

    The global economic situation at the beginning of August is essentially unchanged from the previous month. On the positive side, the situation and expectations have not deteriorated further. In the USA and Japan there have even been slight improvements. Nevertheless, this does not imply a fundamental change in the assessment. The expected values remain negative and thus the basic finding of an economic downturn or a foreseeable recession remains.

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    July 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    03.07.22
    File Size:
    420 KB

    Crash – the second

    The scenery seems like something out of a bad film. The plot is simply too transparent. The catastrophe towards which the protagonists are heading is simply too obvious to generate any excitement. And it is hardly understandable that they also give active support to their fate. This is more or less what the collapse of the world economy seems like these days. The energy crisis, which is also homemade, is leading to considerable economic distortions. As we said last month, June did not really represent a stabilisation. We were only in the eye of the storm. Now the crash continues.

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    June 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    05.06.22
    File Size:
    400 KB

    Stabilisation? Not really.

    At the beginning of June, the sentix economic indices show signs of stabilisation. In the Eurozone, both the situa-tion values (3.2 points) and the economic expectations (9.8 points) rose significantly. All in all, the overall index is rising again for the first time after three consecutive declines. At -15.8 points, however, the index remains clearly negative. The economy is still in a downturn. The international picture is also comparable. For the USA and Switzerland, however, the developments are somewhat weaker.

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    May 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    07.05.22
    File Size:
    439 KB

    "We are also harming ourselves"

    War only knows victims. The traces of the Ukraine conflict are also becoming increasingly visible in the economy. The sanctions against Russia are having an effect, on enemies and friends alike. Last month, the "first mover" economic index clearly pointed the way towards recession. At the beginning of May, the downturn deepened further. Europe is hit particularly hard. The overall Eurozone index drops to -22.6 points. And for Germany we re-port an all-time low in economic expectations. In other words: it's coming thick and fast.

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    April 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    03.04.22
    File Size:
    574 KB

    The recession begins

    When it comes to the question of when the recession began in the Eurozone, economists are likely to determine the beginning of the second quarter of 2022 as the start of a recession in retrospect. This is at least the conclusion we have to draw from the current data of the sentix business cycle indices. At the beginning of April, the sentix economic indices collapse. The overall index plunged again by a full 11 points after the weak March value. Both the situation and the expectations indexes are now negative, and the economy is thus beginning to shrink. At the moment, no other global region can provide a real counterbalance. Even the Asian region is already stagnating.

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    March 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    06.03.22
    File Size:
    413 KB

    sentix Economic Index: Ukraine crisis causes economy to slump drastically

    • The economy in the euro zone is slumping dramatically due to the war in Ukraine. The current economic situation dropped by a whopping 11.5 points to +7.8 points. Expectations erode by -34.75 points, the largest drop in the 20-year history of the sentix economic index.
    • The picture in Germany is similar. Current conditions and expectations are plummeting. The overall index falls by 23.1 points to -5.2. The Eastern Europe region falls into a deep recession.
    • The US economy is also hit by the crisis shock, albeit not quite as hard. The overall index fell by 10.2 points to 11.9. After all, we are measuring the third consecutive decline in expectations there as well. On a positive note, the U.S. sentiment index remains at 29.8 points and so far only points to an economic slowdown. The Asian economic region is also in the wake of the global downward trend.

     

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    February 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    06.02.22
    File Size:
    413 KB

    sentix Economic Index: View on USA and Latin America

    • The economic situation in the Eurozone was stable in February. The situation index rose by 3 points to 19.3. Expectations rise slightly to 14.0 points, the highest value since July 2021.
    • The picture in Germany is similar. Here, too, the situation and expectations scores improve somewhat. The overall index rises to 17.9 points.
    • The picture is different in the USA. Here the overall index falls for the third time in a row due to a decline in expectations to only 10.0 points. In Latin America we measure a clear improvement in the economic situation. Both situation and expectations scores continue to rise. It seems that the recession is finally being overcome here.

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    January 2022 results

    Uploaded:
    09.01.22
    File Size:
    398 KB

    sentix Economic Index: Stabilization is progressing

    • The stabilization of economic indices is progressing in January 2022. At 14.9 points, the overall index for the euro zone increases by 1.4 points. The current assessment improves by 3.0 points, while the expectations component stagnates.
    • The picture is similar for the German economy. The overall index rises by 2.6 points, while the current situation scores increase by 5.2 points, which is somewhat more pronounced. The expectations component also confirms its previous month's value at +15.0 points.
    • The figures for the Asia ex Japan region are particularly encouraging. All subcomponents increased. This gives more contour to our basic scenario that the global economy will recover and emerge from the mid-cycle slowdown.

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    December 2021 results

    Uploaded:
    05.12.21
    File Size:
    397 KB

    Lockdown-Blues

    The global economy is still in a process of economic slowdown. This is proceeding in an orderly manner in most regions. The situation values are declining, while the medium-term expectations remain stable or even improve. This basically confirms our expectation that we are experiencing a "mid-cycle slowdown". The situation in Euro-land, on the other hand, looks worse. The tighter lockdown measures, which have been taken above all in Ger-many and Austria, are dampening the assessments of the situation there considerably. A slowdown to the point of recession no longer seems out of the question. These lock-downs are hitting the economy harder than before.

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