sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Fourth decline in a row!

The momentum of the global economy is slowing. The expectation scores of most regions in the sentix business cycle indices are falling for the fourth or fifth time in a row. The expectation values are still positive, but the zen-ith of the economic recovery since the lockdowns last autumn has been passed. This is also evident in the as-sessments of the economic situation, which have only improved slightly in a few regions. In the important region of Asia ex Japan, on the other hand, we measure a noticeable decline.

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Third decline in a row

The global economy is running at full speed, but momentum is weakening. The slowdown in the Asia ex Japan region is also contributing to this. In the Eurozone, the recovery of the current economic situation continues. At 30.8 points, the assessment reached its highest level since October 2018. However, here, too, the expectations component lost a significant 15.8 points, marking the third decline in a row. The rule of a three-point decline should be taken seriously. As a result, the overall index for the Eurozone drops by 7.6 points. Germany's economy continues to be in boom-like shape. It rises for the 15th time in a row to 38.5 points. The expectations component halves.

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Can it get any better?

The global economy is running at full speed. Even the crisis region of Latin America is back in positive territory for the first time since May 2018. Even if the recession has not yet been fully overcome there, things are booming everywhere. The global situation index rose for the 15th time in a row to 29.4 points. Can it get any better? In the short term, there are increasing signs of overstimulation. Expectations are starting to fall. This could contribute to higher stock market volatility over the summer.

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Current situation gains momentum

The economic catch-up process continues and above all the situation is now assessed much better than four weeks ago. No wonder, since more and more restrictions are being lifted in Europe after the Corona case num-bers declined significantly. In Euroland, the situation index rises by 15 points to 21.3. This is the highest value since November 2018. The same can be observed for all other world regions. We also measure further increases in the sentix indices in Latin America and Eastern Europe, where economic activity has been subdued so far.

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Overstimulation?

The global economy is beginning to show signs of overheating. The situation assessments in all regions continue to improve. With the exception of Latin America and Eastern Europe, we measure positive values everywhere. The Corona-related recession phase has ended. At the same time, expectations remain high. Investors therefore expect a continuation of the current upswing, which is increasingly perceived as a boom. This has a noticeable ef-fect on the situation on the bond markets. Investors expect reactions from the central banks.

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