sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Europe clearly lagging behind

The sentix overall economic index for Euroland falls by -1.5 points in February to an index level of -0.2 points. The lockdowns in many European countries are leaving their mark. For Euroland, the assessment of the current situation falls by 1.0 points, while the expectations component drops by 2.0 points. A similar trend can be observed for the assessment of the German economy. The international picture is different. The US economy in particular is setting an exclamation mark. However, Japan and the Asia ex Japan region are also continuing to recover.

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Expectations overshoot

The sentix economic expectations for Euroland continue to develop very positively. Although large parts of Europe are suffering from a lockdown and the Corona pandemic seems to be flaring up again in other parts of the world, such as Japan, economic expectations continue to rise. In Euroland, they reach 33.5 points, the highest level since records began in 2003. This very positive assessment of expectations is likely to be very much in line with the prospects of a successful vaccination campaign. For in contrast, the situation is moving along very slowly, and in Asia we are even measuring a decline!

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Vaccine releases boom-like growth forces

The Corona crisis year 2020 will end with a bang, which will set several exclamation marks for the global economy. In our December results, we have a series of all-time highs (!) in the expectation components of various world economic regions. Hopes for an early use of vaccines are fuelling the fantasy that the economy in 2021 will recover more clearly than previously expected from the consensus.

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Asia makes it better!

The rising number of positive PCR test results is causing politicians to fear an uncontrolled spread of the corona virus. Although the serious consequences of a lockdown on economic development were experienced in March, most governments in Europe are going down the path of renewed contact restrictions. Although these do not have the same negative effect as in March, they do dampen the economic recovery process. Surprisingly, however, the effect on the sentix business cycle index is surprisingly limited at -1.7 points on an overall index of -10 points. The reason for this "mild lockdown" is probably the positive dynamics in Asia and the USA.

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Asia continues to pick up, Euroland stagnating

The economic recovery in Euroland takes a breather in October. After five successive improvements, the sentix overall economic index for the euro zone fell marginally by -0.3 points to -8.3 points. However, the current situation continues to improve, reaching its highest level since March 2020. The data does not reveal any significant risk element in the short term, as the expectations index remains at a higher level despite a decline of 2 points. The outlook for Germany looks somewhat better than for the euro area as a whole. There are positive developments to report, especially from Asia ex Japan and the US.

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