sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Overstimulation?

The global economy is beginning to show signs of overheating. The situation assessments in all regions continue to improve. With the exception of Latin America and Eastern Europe, we measure positive values everywhere. The Corona-related recession phase has ended. At the same time, expectations remain high. Investors therefore expect a continuation of the current upswing, which is increasingly perceived as a boom. This has a noticeable ef-fect on the situation on the bond markets. Investors expect reactions from the central banks.

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Strong increase in the current situation - worldwide!

In April, the sentix Economic Index for the Eurozone rose very strongly by 8.1 points. The leading indicator reach-es its highest level since August 2018. In the latest data, the assessment of the current situation is particularly positive - and that worldwide! As a result, some economic regions have made it into the boom quadrant. On the positive side, expectations have not weakened, but have even increased in many cases. The economic expectations for the Eurozone have reached a new all-time high!

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The global upswing

At the beginning of March, the global economy is on a sustained recovery path, increasingly driven less by expec-tations for the future and more by improvements in the assessment of the situation. The global situation index rises for the tenth time in a row to 5.5 points, the overall index even for the eleventh time in a row to the best value since March 2018. The picture is basically the same in all world regions, the upswing is thus broad-based. In Euroland, the situation assessment also improved significantly from -27.5 to -19.3 points, despite continuing re-strictions in many countries.

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Europe clearly lagging behind

The sentix overall economic index for Euroland falls by -1.5 points in February to an index level of -0.2 points. The lockdowns in many European countries are leaving their mark. For Euroland, the assessment of the current situation falls by 1.0 points, while the expectations component drops by 2.0 points. A similar trend can be observed for the assessment of the German economy. The international picture is different. The US economy in particular is setting an exclamation mark. However, Japan and the Asia ex Japan region are also continuing to recover.

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Expectations overshoot

The sentix economic expectations for Euroland continue to develop very positively. Although large parts of Europe are suffering from a lockdown and the Corona pandemic seems to be flaring up again in other parts of the world, such as Japan, economic expectations continue to rise. In Euroland, they reach 33.5 points, the highest level since records began in 2003. This very positive assessment of expectations is likely to be very much in line with the prospects of a successful vaccination campaign. For in contrast, the situation is moving along very slowly, and in Asia we are even measuring a decline!

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