sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Stabilization is progressing

The stabilization of economic indicators is progressing in January 2022. At 14.9 points, the overall index for the euro zone increases by 1.4 points. The current assessment improves by 3.0 points, while the expectations component stagnates. The picture is similar for Germany. The figures for the Asia ex Japan region are particularly encouraging. All sub-components increased significantly. This gives more contour to our basic scenario that the global economy is recovering and finding its way out of the mid-cycle slowdown. Some world regions are even bouncing back into the boom squares of the sentix business cycle clock.

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Lockdown-Blues

The global economy is still in a process of economic slowdown. This is proceeding in an orderly manner in most regions. The situation values are declining, while the medium-term expectations remain stable or even improve. This basically confirms our expectation that we are experiencing a "mid-cycle slowdown". The situation in Euro-land, on the other hand, looks worse. The tighter lockdown measures, which have been taken above all in Ger-many and Austria, are dampening the assessments of the situation there considerably. A slowdown to the point of recession no longer seems out of the question. These lock-downs are hitting the economy harder than before.

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Things are looking up again!

The economic indicators manage a turnaround in the month of November. The overall index for the euro zone rises for the first time since July 2021, while the current situation indicators remain in a correction trend. On the other hand, the expectations figures increased by 5.3 points. For Germany, the overall index stagnates once again, with the assessment of the situation even dropping significantly by 6.2 points. Fortunately, the expecta-tions component also increased by 5.3 points. Overall, this confirms our thesis for the global economy that the recent slowdown is a "mid-cycle slowdown". Economic expectations are rising sharply, especially in the USA, but also in Asia.

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Loss of momentum continues

The momentum of the economic recovery in the Eurozone continues to slow down. At 16.9 points, the overall index is falling for the third time in a row. Expectations are dropping for the fifth time in a row to only 8 points. For Germany we get the first feedback after the Bundestag elections: The current assessment also slips by 5 points, while the expectations component is able to counter the global loss of momentum and even rises by 2.7 points. Overall, the signs for the global economy continue to point to a "mid-cycle slowdown". The slowdown in growth in the middle of the cycle is making headway in the major economic regions - first and foremost in the USA. The Asia ex Japan region also remains affected.

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Fourth decline in a row!

The momentum of the global economy is slowing. The expectation scores of most regions in the sentix business cycle indices are falling for the fourth or fifth time in a row. The expectation values are still positive, but the zen-ith of the economic recovery since the lockdowns last autumn has been passed. This is also evident in the as-sessments of the economic situation, which have only improved slightly in a few regions. In the important region of Asia ex Japan, on the other hand, we measure a noticeable decline.

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