sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

From recession to stagnation

February data in the sentix economic indices come in better than expected. In Euroland, the overall index rises for the fourth time in a row, improving by 9.5 points to now 8 points. The increase signals that a recession is off the table for the time being. Instead, the scenario of stagnation is gaining in contour. In Germany, too, the overall index improved by around 10 points. Both the current situation (+9.2 points) and the economic expectations (+10.2 points) signal an easing of the situation, but not a final all-clear. For the economic region Asia, things are looking better again: With the fifth increase in a row, the economic region is continuing its initiated upswing: The overall index rises by +10.3 points to now +11.7 points. The assessment of the current situation and expectations are moving up together. This also benefits the overall index for the global economy, which climbs to +1.6 points - the highest value since February 2022.

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It remains challenging

The January data in the sentix economic indices indicate a further improvement. In Euroland, the overall index rises for the third time in a row, improving by 3.5 points to -17.5. There is virtually no change in the assessment of the current situation, with only the expectations values signaling a greater easing of the situation. This basic trend can also be seen in the German economic figures: The assessment of the current situation remains almost unchanged, while expectations have risen by 7.3 points. It can thus be seen that the economic environment remains challenging. Despite the improvement, both subcomponents remain in deep negative territory. There is a glimmer of hope for Asia at the start of the year: expectations for the Asia ex Japan region (especially China) are rising dynamically. The end of the restrictive Corona measures in China is generating hopes of better times ahead.

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More relaxation

The latest sentix economic data improve again and surprisingly significantly. Investors are spreading hope that thanks to mild winter weather, sufficient gas in storage and a possible peak in inflation data, the economic down-turn has also passed its zenith. Internationally, there are also more moderate tones from the US Federal Reserve, which is holding out the prospect of "only" 50 basis points of interest rate increases in December. And in China, the protests finally seem to point to an end to the restrictive Corona measures. So will the recession end before it has really begun?

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Mild temperatures give hope

At the beginning of November, the sentix economic indices in Euroland surprise on the positive side. The overall index rises by 7.4 points to -30.9, which is still not a trend reversal signal. But the rise in situation and expectation values shows how sensitively investors react in their economic expectations to signals from the energy market. For this is the cause of the hopeful changes. October showed higher temperatures than usual and this means that gas storage facilities in Germany, for example, are full to the brim, more than expected for November. Spot mar-ket gas prices collapsed in response. Concerns about a catastrophic gas shortage are fading.

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Catastrophic conditions

At the beginning of October, the sentix economic indices signal an unchanged difficult economic situation - in Europe, but also globally. At -38.3 points, the overall Eurozone index sinks to its lowest level since May 2020. The ongoing uncertainties about the gas and energy situation in winter have not diminished due to the attack on the Nordstream pipelines. In addition to the economic worries, there is now also an increasing probability of an esca-lation of the military conflict in Ukraine. Globally, there is little reason for hope. Only China seems to be stabilis-ing somewhat at present.

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