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February 2023 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.02.23
- File Size:
- 348 KB
From recession to stagnation
February data in the sentix economic indices come in better than expected. In Euroland, the overall index rises for the fourth time in a row, improving by 9.5 points to now 8 points. The increase signals that a recession is off the table for the time being. Instead, the scenario of stagnation is gaining in contour. In Germany, too, the overall index improved by around 10 points. Both the current situation (+9.2 points) and the economic expectations (+10.2 points) signal an easing of the situation, but not a final all-clear. For the economic region Asia, things are looking better again: With the fifth increase in a row, the economic region is continuing its initiated upswing: The overall index rises by +10.3 points to now +11.7 points. The assessment of the current situation and expectations are moving up together. This also benefits the overall index for the global economy, which climbs to +1.6 points - the highest value since February 2022.
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January 2023 results
- Uploaded:
- 08.01.23
- File Size:
- 346 KB
It remains challenging
The January data in the sentix economic indices indicate a further improvement. In Euroland, the overall index rises for the third time in a row, improving by 3.5 points to -17.5. There is virtually no change in the assessment of the current situation, with only the expectations values signaling a greater easing of the situation. This basic trend can also be seen in the German economic figures: The assessment of the current situation remains almost unchanged, while expectations have risen by 7.3 points. It can thus be seen that the economic environment remains challenging. Despite the improvement, both subcomponents remain in deep negative territory. There is a glimmer of hope for Asia at the start of the year: expectations for the Asia ex Japan region (especially China) are rising dynamically. The end of the restrictive Corona measures in China is generating hopes of better times ahead.
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December 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 04.12.22
- File Size:
- 427 KB
More relaxation
The latest sentix economic data improve again and surprisingly significantly. Investors are spreading hope that thanks to mild winter weather, sufficient gas in storage and a possible peak in inflation data, the economic down-turn has also passed its zenith. Internationally, there are also more moderate tones from the US Federal Reserve, which is holding out the prospect of "only" 50 basis points of interest rate increases in December. And in China, the protests finally seem to point to an end to the restrictive Corona measures. So will the recession end before it has really begun?
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November 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 06.11.22
- File Size:
- 558 KB
Mild temperatures give hope
At the beginning of November, the sentix economic indices in Euroland surprise on the positive side. The overall index rises by 7.4 points to -30.9, which is still not a trend reversal signal. But the rise in situation and expectation values shows how sensitively investors react in their economic expectations to signals from the energy market. For this is the cause of the hopeful changes. October showed higher temperatures than usual and this means that gas storage facilities in Germany, for example, are full to the brim, more than expected for November. Spot mar-ket gas prices collapsed in response. Concerns about a catastrophic gas shortage are fading.
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October 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.10.22
- File Size:
- 425 KB
Catastrophic conditions
At the beginning of October, the sentix economic indices signal an unchanged difficult economic situation - in Europe, but also globally. At -38.3 points, the overall Eurozone index sinks to its lowest level since May 2020. The ongoing uncertainties about the gas and energy situation in winter have not diminished due to the attack on the Nordstream pipelines. In addition to the economic worries, there is now also an increasing probability of an esca-lation of the military conflict in Ukraine. Globally, there is little reason for hope. Only China seems to be stabilis-ing somewhat at present.
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September 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 04.09.22
- File Size:
- 679 KB
A very deep recession?!
The general conditions for the global economy continued to deteriorate at the beginning of September. While in Europe the signs have been pointing to a considerable recession for some time, there are now increasing signs of a corresponding development at the global level. The sentix business cycle indices for all regions and countries under consideration are deteriorating. The third decline in the values for China is of particular importance. But the recessionary environment is also deepening in the Eurozone.
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August 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.08.22
- File Size:
- 411 KB
Unchanged picture
The global economic situation at the beginning of August is essentially unchanged from the previous month. On the positive side, the situation and expectations have not deteriorated further. In the USA and Japan there have even been slight improvements. Nevertheless, this does not imply a fundamental change in the assessment. The expected values remain negative and thus the basic finding of an economic downturn or a foreseeable recession remains.
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July 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 03.07.22
- File Size:
- 420 KB
Crash – the second
The scenery seems like something out of a bad film. The plot is simply too transparent. The catastrophe towards which the protagonists are heading is simply too obvious to generate any excitement. And it is hardly understandable that they also give active support to their fate. This is more or less what the collapse of the world economy seems like these days. The energy crisis, which is also homemade, is leading to considerable economic distortions. As we said last month, June did not really represent a stabilisation. We were only in the eye of the storm. Now the crash continues.
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June 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.06.22
- File Size:
- 400 KB
Stabilisation? Not really.
At the beginning of June, the sentix economic indices show signs of stabilisation. In the Eurozone, both the situa-tion values (3.2 points) and the economic expectations (9.8 points) rose significantly. All in all, the overall index is rising again for the first time after three consecutive declines. At -15.8 points, however, the index remains clearly negative. The economy is still in a downturn. The international picture is also comparable. For the USA and Switzerland, however, the developments are somewhat weaker.
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May 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.05.22
- File Size:
- 439 KB
"We are also harming ourselves"
War only knows victims. The traces of the Ukraine conflict are also becoming increasingly visible in the economy. The sanctions against Russia are having an effect, on enemies and friends alike. Last month, the "first mover" economic index clearly pointed the way towards recession. At the beginning of May, the downturn deepened further. Europe is hit particularly hard. The overall Eurozone index drops to -22.6 points. And for Germany we re-port an all-time low in economic expectations. In other words: it's coming thick and fast.
