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April 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 03.04.22
- File Size:
- 574 KB
The recession begins
When it comes to the question of when the recession began in the Eurozone, economists are likely to determine the beginning of the second quarter of 2022 as the start of a recession in retrospect. This is at least the conclusion we have to draw from the current data of the sentix business cycle indices. At the beginning of April, the sentix economic indices collapse. The overall index plunged again by a full 11 points after the weak March value. Both the situation and the expectations indexes are now negative, and the economy is thus beginning to shrink. At the moment, no other global region can provide a real counterbalance. Even the Asian region is already stagnating.
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March 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 06.03.22
- File Size:
- 413 KB
sentix Economic Index: Ukraine crisis causes economy to slump drastically
- The economy in the euro zone is slumping dramatically due to the war in Ukraine. The current economic situation dropped by a whopping 11.5 points to +7.8 points. Expectations erode by -34.75 points, the largest drop in the 20-year history of the sentix economic index.
- The picture in Germany is similar. Current conditions and expectations are plummeting. The overall index falls by 23.1 points to -5.2. The Eastern Europe region falls into a deep recession.
- The US economy is also hit by the crisis shock, albeit not quite as hard. The overall index fell by 10.2 points to 11.9. After all, we are measuring the third consecutive decline in expectations there as well. On a positive note, the U.S. sentiment index remains at 29.8 points and so far only points to an economic slowdown. The Asian economic region is also in the wake of the global downward trend.
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February 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 06.02.22
- File Size:
- 413 KB
sentix Economic Index: View on USA and Latin America
- The economic situation in the Eurozone was stable in February. The situation index rose by 3 points to 19.3. Expectations rise slightly to 14.0 points, the highest value since July 2021.
- The picture in Germany is similar. Here, too, the situation and expectations scores improve somewhat. The overall index rises to 17.9 points.
- The picture is different in the USA. Here the overall index falls for the third time in a row due to a decline in expectations to only 10.0 points. In Latin America we measure a clear improvement in the economic situation. Both situation and expectations scores continue to rise. It seems that the recession is finally being overcome here.
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January 2022 results
- Uploaded:
- 09.01.22
- File Size:
- 398 KB
sentix Economic Index: Stabilization is progressing
- The stabilization of economic indices is progressing in January 2022. At 14.9 points, the overall index for the euro zone increases by 1.4 points. The current assessment improves by 3.0 points, while the expectations component stagnates.
- The picture is similar for the German economy. The overall index rises by 2.6 points, while the current situation scores increase by 5.2 points, which is somewhat more pronounced. The expectations component also confirms its previous month's value at +15.0 points.
- The figures for the Asia ex Japan region are particularly encouraging. All subcomponents increased. This gives more contour to our basic scenario that the global economy will recover and emerge from the mid-cycle slowdown.
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December 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.12.21
- File Size:
- 397 KB
Lockdown-Blues
The global economy is still in a process of economic slowdown. This is proceeding in an orderly manner in most regions. The situation values are declining, while the medium-term expectations remain stable or even improve. This basically confirms our expectation that we are experiencing a "mid-cycle slowdown". The situation in Euro-land, on the other hand, looks worse. The tighter lockdown measures, which have been taken above all in Ger-many and Austria, are dampening the assessments of the situation there considerably. A slowdown to the point of recession no longer seems out of the question. These lock-downs are hitting the economy harder than before.
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November 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 07.11.21
- File Size:
- 347 KB
sentix Economic Index: Things are looking up again!
- Economic indicators manage a turnaround in November. At 18.3 points, the overall index for the euro zone rises for the first time since July 2021, despite a further decline in the current situation. The improvement is due to a significant rise in expectations, which increased by 5.3 points.
- For Germany, the overall index stagnated once again, with the current situation values even dropping by a further 6.2 points. Fortunately, however, the expectations component increased by 5.3 points. The turnaround seems to have been achieved!
- This confirms our thesis for the global economy that the recent slowdown is a mid-cycle slowdown. Economic expectations are rising, especially in the USA, but also in Asia.
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October 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 03.10.21
- File Size:
- 352 KB
Loss of momentum continues
- Economic indicators for the Eurozone continue to lose momentum in October. At 16.9 points, the overall index falls for the third time in a row. Expectations drop for the fifth time in a row to only 8 points.
- For Germany, we get the first feedback after the Bundestag elections: The current assessment also slips by 5 points, while the expectations component is bucking the global loss of momentum and even manages to increase by 2.7 points.
- The signs for the global economy continue to point to "mid-cycle slowdown". The slowdown in growth in the middle of the cycle is progressing in the major economic regions - first and foremost in the USA. The Asia ex Japan region also continues to breathe a sigh of relief, where current and expected values are falling synchronously.
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September 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 05.09.21
- File Size:
- 393 KB
Fourth decline in a row!
The momentum of the global economy is slowing. The expectation scores of most regions in the sentix business cycle indices are falling for the fourth or fifth time in a row. The expectation values are still positive, but the zenith of the economic recovery since the lockdowns last autumn has been passed. This is also evident in the assessments of the economic situation, which have only improved slightly in a few regions. In the important region of Asia ex Japan, on the other hand, we measure a noticeable decline.
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August 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 08.08.21
- File Size:
- 354 KB
sentix Economic Index: Third decline in a row
- The recovery of current assessment in the Eurozone continues. Valuations are reaching levels last surpassed in October 2018.
- However, the expectations component loses significantly by 15.8 points, marking the third decline in a row. The overall index slips by 7.6 points.
- The German economy also continues to present itself in boom-like condition. The assessment of the current situation rose for the 15th time in a row to 38.5 points. The expectations component suffers similarly strongly.
- The global economy is also shifting down a gear in the current boom. Here it is not only the expectations values that characterise the loss of momentum, but also the current assessment, which are more clearly in retreat. The pronounced weakness in the Asia ex Japan region also contributes to this.
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July 2021 results
- Uploaded:
- 04.07.21
- File Size:
- 429 KB
Can it get any better?
The global economy is running at full speed. Even the crisis region of Latin America is back in positive territory for the first time since May 2018. Even if the recession has not yet been fully overcome there, things are booming everywhere. The global situation index rose for the 15th time in a row to 29.4 points. Can it get any better? In the short term, there are increasing signs of overstimulation. Expectations are starting to fall. This could contribute to higher stock market volatility over the summer.
