A single repetition

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 February 2018
Posted in Special research

In December last year, we published an unusual data constellation at this point. While the sentix overconfidence in-dex for equities showed an upper extreme, indicating increased risk exposure, the counterpart for US bonds was at a low. The difference between the two observations produced an extreme signal, which had only been reached once before - on the eve of the financial crisis. Now, in February 2018, another such extreme signal is emerging. A unique repetition!

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sentix policy barometer: Stress increases

Written by Manfred Hübner | 12 February 2018
Posted in Special research

In February 2018, according to the investors surveyed by sentix, the pressure on the financial markets from policymakers will noticeably increase again. The sentix policy barometer drops from -0.1 to -0.34 points. The main reasons for this are the tugging around the "brexit", but also the forthcoming elections in Italy.

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Risk appetite for equities reaches all-time high

Written by Manfred Hübner | 24 January 2018
Posted in Special research

Investors are showing an unprecedented level of risk in their equity exposures. An indicator of this is rather the pre-ferred investment themes and styles than the total equity exposure. Especially stocks in the emerging markets are very popular with investors. Furthermore, investors increasingly see IPOs as a promising investment opportunity. In addition, investors are more and more pro-cyclical.

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Historical signals - Financial crisis greets!

Written by Manfred Hübner | 13 December 2017
Posted in Special research

In summer 2007, the world of investors was still in order. Equities should rise, interest rates should also rise - and problems such as the looming subprime crisis are best ignored. This recipe for success proved to be a capital failure. Are investors currently making another historic mistake? The danger that show the sentix overconfidence indices, exists at least.

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Relaxation à la Trump

Written by Manfred Hübner | 16 November 2017
Posted in Special research

In November, investor concerns over political developments eased slightly. This is mainly due to the fact that geopolitics and the US president are assessed more favorably. An opposite trend is observed in the Brexit theme, which is gaining negative momentum. And even the difficult government formation in Germany weighs on the policy barometer.

The sentix policy barometer may improve slightly in November. Especially declining geopolitical concerns of investors and a better assessment of the topic "Trump" contribute to this. However, less encouraging is the development of the topic "Brexit". This seems to be gaining momentum for investors. Difficult government formation and the possibility of new elections are contributing to the decline in the "elections" sub-index.

Interesting is the development of the assessment of the US president. Although his personal and professional assessment remains critical, investors are increasingly getting used to the situation. In addition, all policy areas are assessed more favorably than in recent months. Above all, the hope for a realization of the tax reduction project is appreciated.

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