Classical US Pre-election Year

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Classical US Pre-election Year

2019 is so far a relatively typical pre-election year in the US presidential cycle on the US stock exchange. If this remains the case, no major gains can be expected from US equities into November. However, the coming stabilisation phase of around 25 trading days also stands out in this analysis.

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sentix Survey results (33-2019)

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The fear of the "R"

The sentiment for US stocks rushes into the cellar for the second time within 3 weeks, fear spreads before the "R-word". Both the contrary indication about the sentix sentiment as well as about the AAII Bull-Bear-Index suggests a price recovery in the S&P 500. How much it can become depends on the strategic bias. Unfortunately, this does not reflect any particular strength.

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Insurances get into the interest focus

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In the last three weeks, yields on long-term bonds in particular have come under massive pressure. Since 16 July 2019, the current interest rate for government bonds with a residual term of 30 years has fallen from +0.33% to cur-rently -0.14%. This development is also having an impact on shares in the insurance industry. However, investors have not yet focused on this.

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sentix Survey results (32-2019)

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Surprisingly high confidence in bonds

The global bond markets are showing extraordinary dynamism. Since 12 July, interest rates for 10-year Bunds have fallen by 35bp. This development is driven by an extraordinarily high basic conviction among investors, which is based, among other things, on the deep conviction that further ECB interest rate cuts are to be expected. There were similar developments in 2014 and 2016, but this "perception of value" is surprising in view of negative interest rates up to a term of 30 years. How deep will the coming recession be?

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Waiting for death

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In the German language, the word "Rente" not only stands for the pension benefits of pensioners, but is also another term for fixed-income securities (bonds). These were or are securities that offer the owner an annual, usually fixed rate of interest - like a pension. This is no longer the case at present. The deep slide of certain segments of the bond market into negative interest rates, for example german federal bonds, has massive consequences, which will be pointed out and discussed here.

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