Greater reversal in sector trends?

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Since August, something has been happening in the relative strength of the sectors. The winners of the last 18 months, pharmaceuticals and food, are weakening. And the weak automotive and banking sectors can improve. Will there be a sustainable turn now?

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sentix Survey results (41-2019)

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Sentiment impulses

The ups and downs of the stock markets are usually based on the dynamics of the economy as measured by the sentix economic situation indices. The strength of this dynamic is often due to the trend in interest rates. Since the beginning of 2018, however, equities have decoupled themselves in a special way from economic momentum. The reason: only parts of the economy have been in recession so far and interest rates are well below 0%. Does this carry stocks any further?

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sentix Survey results (40-2019)

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Buy signals from sentiment

People make markets - and these are under the impression of emotions. This applies to investors worldwide. Our chart of the week shows the sentix sentiment values for US equities. In the last 12 months the market has gone through 11 sentiment cycles. These can be seen more clearly at sentix than with known US data, e.g. the put call ratio. Currently, another exciting point has been reached (see commentary in the analysis).

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Central bank impulses fizzle out

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There is no positive reaction to the central banks' aid measures, and economic assessments are broadly negative in October. At -16.8 points, the sentix overall economic index for the Euro area marks the lowest level since April 2013. The recovery of expectations from the previous month has thus completely evaporated. In addition, the assessment of the current situation gives cause for concern. For the eurozone, this falls by 6 points to a 5-year low, and for Germany the value drops for the fifth time in a row at a rapid pace. Fears of recession are immanent. The other regions of the world are also descending.

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Positioning risks in gold remain high

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A month ago, we highlighted gold as a risky investment at this point. The risk radar showed a strongly negative score of more than -2, which suggested a noticeable correction. This has now begun.

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