sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Mild temperatures give hope

At the beginning of November, the sentix economic indices in Euroland surprise on the positive side. The overall index rises by 7.4 points to -30.9, which is still not a trend reversal signal. But the rise in situation and expectation values shows how sensitively investors react in their economic expectations to signals from the energy market. For this is the cause of the hopeful changes. October showed higher temperatures than usual and this means that gas storage facilities in Germany, for example, are full to the brim, more than expected for November. Spot mar-ket gas prices collapsed in response. Concerns about a catastrophic gas shortage are fading.

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Catastrophic conditions

At the beginning of October, the sentix economic indices signal an unchanged difficult economic situation - in Europe, but also globally. At -38.3 points, the overall Eurozone index sinks to its lowest level since May 2020. The ongoing uncertainties about the gas and energy situation in winter have not diminished due to the attack on the Nordstream pipelines. In addition to the economic worries, there is now also an increasing probability of an esca-lation of the military conflict in Ukraine. Globally, there is little reason for hope. Only China seems to be stabilis-ing somewhat at present.

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A very deep recession?!

The general conditions for the global economy continued to deteriorate at the beginning of September. While in Europe the signs have been pointing to a considerable recession for some time, there are now increasing signs of a corresponding development at the global level. The sentix business cycle indices for all regions and countries under consideration are deteriorating. The third decline in the values for China is of particular importance. But the recessionary environment is also deepening in the Eurozone.

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Unchanged picture

The global economic situation at the beginning of August is essentially unchanged from the previous month. On the positive side, the situation and expectations have not deteriorated further. In the USA and Japan there have even been slight improvements. Nevertheless, this does not imply a fundamental change in the assessment. The expected values remain negative and thus the basic finding of an economic downturn or a foreseeable recession remains.

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Crash – the second

The scenery seems like something out of a bad film. The plot is simply too transparent. The catastrophe towards which the protagonists are heading is simply too obvious to generate any excitement. And it is hardly understandable that they also give active support to their fate. This is more or less what the collapse of the world economy seems like these days. The energy crisis, which is also homemade, is leading to considerable economic distortions. As we said last month, June did not really represent a stabilisation. We were only in the eye of the storm. Now the crash continues.

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