sentix Economic News

Read the latest information and indications about the "first mover" among the economic indicators!

Background information on the sentix economic indicators

Unchanged picture

The global economic situation at the beginning of August is essentially unchanged from the previous month. On the positive side, the situation and expectations have not deteriorated further. In the USA and Japan there have even been slight improvements. Nevertheless, this does not imply a fundamental change in the assessment. The expected values remain negative and thus the basic finding of an economic downturn or a foreseeable recession remains.

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Crash – the second

The scenery seems like something out of a bad film. The plot is simply too transparent. The catastrophe towards which the protagonists are heading is simply too obvious to generate any excitement. And it is hardly understandable that they also give active support to their fate. This is more or less what the collapse of the world economy seems like these days. The energy crisis, which is also homemade, is leading to considerable economic distortions. As we said last month, June did not really represent a stabilisation. We were only in the eye of the storm. Now the crash continues.

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Stabilisation? Not really.

At the beginning of June, the sentix economic indices show signs of stabilisation. In the Eurozone, both the situa-tion values (3.2 points) and the economic expectations (9.8 points) rose significantly. All in all, the overall index is rising again for the first time after three consecutive declines. At -15.8 points, however, the index remains clearly negative. The economy is still in a downturn. The international picture is also comparable. For the USA and Switzerland, however, the developments are somewhat weaker.

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"We are also harming ourselves"

War only knows victims. The traces of the Ukraine conflict are also becoming increasingly visible in the economy. The sanctions against Russia are having an effect, on enemies and friends alike. Last month, the "first mover" economic index clearly pointed the way towards recession. At the beginning of May, the downturn deepened further. Europe is hit particularly hard. The overall Eurozone index drops to -22.6 points. And for Germany we report an all-time low in economic expectations. In other words: it's coming thick and fast.

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The recession begins

When it comes to the question of when the recession began in the Eurozone, economists are likely to determine the beginning of the second quarter of 2022 as the start of a recession in retrospect. This is at least the conclusion we have to draw from the current data of the sentix business cycle indices. At the beginning of April, the sentix economic indices collapse. The overall index plunged again by a full 11 points after the weak March value. Both the situation and the expectations indexes are now negative, and the economy is thus beginning to shrink. At the moment, no other global region can provide a real counterbalance. Even the Asian region is already stagnating.

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