Coup in Euroland!

For the euro-area economy investors' 6-month expectations rise in December as strongly as only twice before in the history of the sentix Economic Index. Only in August 2005, ahead of German elections, and in February 2012, when the ECB was about to launch its second LTRO, more pronounced increases could be observed. Also, the assessment of the current situation improves which makes the composite index go up by 9.4 to now -2.5 points. With that, the sentix Economy Clock now points to an upswing for the euro zone!
For the remaining regions and countries the composite indices rise, too. The only exception is Japan. That the euro zone stands out so clearly this month should be due to the expectation that the ECB will start a large-scale as-set-buying programme soon. In addition, the weak euro and the fallen price of oil are obviously perceived as economic boosters. And the low oil price does have positive effects not only in the euro zone!

 Full report December 2014

Headlines of the month

  • In December, the composite index for the eurozone rises by 9.4 to now -2.5 points.
  • This increase is mainly driven by an extraordinary improvement in investors' 6-month expectations. For the euro area they show the third strongest increase since the introduction of the time series! This indicates that the euro area is abruptly leaving its recessionary phase behind and is now entering a recovery.
  • The composite indices for the rest of the regions and countries improve, too. The exception is Japan for which investors assess the current situation much worse than last month. The composite index for the global aggregate nevertheless rises markedly from 9.7 to 12.8 points.

More sentix Economic indices

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