Fourth decline in a row!

The momentum of the global economy is slowing. The expectation scores of most regions in the sentix business cycle indices are falling for the fourth or fifth time in a row. The expectation values are still positive, but the zen-ith of the economic recovery since the lockdowns last autumn has been passed. This is also evident in the as-sessments of the economic situation, which have only improved slightly in a few regions. In the important region of Asia ex Japan, on the other hand, we measure a noticeable decline.

Full report August 2021

Headlines of the month

  • Investors' assessment of the economic situation in the Eurozone did not improve further in September. At 30.8 points, however, it remains at a high level. Expectations, on the other hand, fell for the fourth time in a row to only 9 points.
  • We also measure a comparable development in Germany. The zenith of the economic catch-up process after the Corona lockdowns has thus been passed. Now the question is whether we are just taking a breath or turning the corner.
  • For the global economy, too, the signs point to a so-called "mid-cycle slowdown", i.e. a slowdown in growth in the middle of the cycle. The Asia ex-Japan region is particularly affected, where the overall index has already weakened for the fifth time in a row. The situation index fell to its lowest level since February 2021.
Euro area Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21
Overall Index 28.1 29.8 22.2 19.6 16.9 18.3

More sentix Economic indices

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