Fourth decline in a row!

The momentum of the global economy is slowing. The expectation scores of most regions in the sentix business cycle indices are falling for the fourth or fifth time in a row. The expectation values are still positive, but the zen-ith of the economic recovery since the lockdowns last autumn has been passed. This is also evident in the as-sessments of the economic situation, which have only improved slightly in a few regions. In the important region of Asia ex Japan, on the other hand, we measure a noticeable decline.

Full report August 2021

Headlines of the month

  • Investors' assessment of the economic situation in the Eurozone did not improve further in September. At 30.8 points, however, it remains at a high level. Expectations, on the other hand, fell for the fourth time in a row to only 9 points.
  • We also measure a comparable development in Germany. The zenith of the economic catch-up process after the Corona lockdowns has thus been passed. Now the question is whether we are just taking a breath or turning the corner.
  • For the global economy, too, the signs point to a so-called "mid-cycle slowdown", i.e. a slowdown in growth in the middle of the cycle. The Asia ex-Japan region is particularly affected, where the overall index has already weakened for the fifth time in a row. The situation index fell to its lowest level since February 2021.
Euro area Mar 22 Apr 22 May 22 Jun 22 Jul 22 Aug 22
Overall Index -7.0 -18.0 -22.6 -15.8 -26.4 -25.2

More sentix Economic indices

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