German economy loses steam

The sentix economic index (composite index) for Germany falls in April for the third time in a row. While 6-month-expectations have been dragging down the indicator over the past months, it is now also the assessment of the current situation which is not lending support to the composite index anymore. The German economy thus loses steam. The big question now is how the euro-zone economy will react to this. Still, it is looking robust: The composite index for the euro area increases, once more, slightly. But expectations are down a little for the sec-ond consecutive month. For the rest of the world sentiment is improving slightly in April. Investors are again more upbeat for the emerg-ing-markets regions after last month's Crimean crisis shock. Also do they see improvements for the US. But sor-rows are growing for Japan: Here, the composite index falls markedly for the third time in a row. 6-month-expectations for Japan's economy have now reached a level last seen in November 2012. That was exactly the time when the so-called "Abenomics" started to take effects on investors' confidence. Their positive impact has obviously faded now.

Full report April 2014

  • In April, the composite index for Germany falls for a third time in a row. It now stands at 28.9 after 30.7 points in the previous month. Once more, 6-month-expectations decrease significantly, while the assessment of the current situation is not improving anymore.
  • For the euro zone, the composite index shows robustness and increases slightly by 0.2 to now 14.1 points. But it is only the assessment of the current situation that contributes to its increase.
  • The composite index for the global aggregate also rises slightly. This is due to better indices for the US and the emerging-markets regions, after the Crimean crises had weighed on the sentiment for Eastern Europe last month. In contrast, the composite index for Japan falls markedly for the third consecutive month.
Euro area Dec 19 Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20
Overall Index 0.7 7.6 5.2 -17.1 -42.9 -41.8

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