Mild temperatures give hope

At the beginning of November, the sentix economic indices in Euroland surprise on the positive side. The overall index rises by 7.4 points to -30.9, which is still not a trend reversal signal. But the rise in situation and expectation values shows how sensitively investors react in their economic expectations to signals from the energy market. For this is the cause of the hopeful changes. October showed higher temperatures than usual and this means that gas storage facilities in Germany, for example, are full to the brim, more than expected for November. Spot mar-ket gas prices collapsed in response. Concerns about a catastrophic gas shortage are fading.

Full report November 2022

Headlines of the month

  • In November, the sentix economic indices surprise on the positive side. The overall index rises by 7.4 points to -30.9 points. Situation and expectation values both improve.
  • A comparable development can be reported for Germany. Here, expectations rise to -32 points, the best value since June. The background for these easing signals is the nuclear power plant compromise in Germany as well as the mild October temperatures, which have filled gas storage well beyond the November target.
  • Internationally, indicators are also improving for the most part. In the USA, the labour market continues to defy the global economy and the FED's interest rate hikes. The Asia ex Japan region, on the other hand, is out of line. China seems to have to pay tribute to its zero-covid policy.

sentix Eco Report Euro area

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