The recession begins

When it comes to the question of when the recession began in the Eurozone, economists are likely to determine the beginning of the second quarter of 2022 as the start of a recession in retrospect. This is at least the conclusion we have to draw from the current data of the sentix business cycle indices. At the beginning of April, the sentix economic indices collapse. The overall index plunged again by a full 11 points after the weak March value. Both the situation and the expectations indexes are now negative, and the economy is thus beginning to shrink. At the moment, no other global region can provide a real counterbalance. Even the Asian region is already stagnating.

Full report April 2022

Headlines of the month

  • The sentix economic data for the Euro area deteriorate again. The overall index collapses by another 11 points to -18 points. This is the lowest value since July 2020. Since the situation is now also negative, the beginning of a recession must be assumed.
  • Germany will also have to deal with a recession. The situation falls by 14.8 points to -4.8 points. This is as bad as it was last in March 2021. The expectations values also fall again to their worst level since January 2009!
  • Internationally, the declines are smaller, but the trend is the same everywhere. Both the situation and expectations scores continue to fall. No region is currently able to resist the negative momentum. Even the important Asian region is already struggling with stagnation.

sentix Eco Report Euro area

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