The Russia Effect – Germany sends a cyclical downturn alarm

The sentix Economic indices leave their mark with a strong drop in August! The total index for Euroland is reduced by 10.1 to now only 2.7 points. The economic expectations put especially strong pressure on the total index. A sur-prising drop by 13.3 points is founded on the EU's economic sanctions against Russia. The German index feels this effect in particular: the total index there drops even more strongly from 29.0 points to now only 17.9 points. Here, expectations lose 13.1 points and are now negative for the first time since November 2012 at -1.3 points. The USA and Asia ex Japan are fighting against the trend – however, their expectational components drop, also. All these slumps are founded in the Ukraine-crisis which is now radiating out more and more strongly. The index for Eastern Europe drops to -12 points and, with that, into recession mode.

Full report August 2014

Headlines of the month

  • The total index for Euroland shows a clear drop in August from 10.1 to now only 2.7 points. Economic expectations put strong pressure on the total index; surprising drop in the sub-index by 13.3 points.
  • Russia effect: in the wake of the sanctions against Russia, the total index for Germany drops even more strongly from 29.0 to 17.9 points. Expectations lose 13.1 points and are now negative for the first time since November 2012 at -1.3 points. For Germany the composite index stands with 29.0 points at about the same level for the fourth consecutive month.
  • USA and Asia ex Japan regions prove comparatively stable, the expectational components drop in these world regions, also. Background: the index for Eastern Europe drops to -12 points and into recession mode.
Euro area Dec 18 Jan 19 Feb 19 Mar 19 Apr 19 May 19
Overall Index -0.3 -1.5 -3.7 -2.2 -0.3 5.3

More sentix Economic indices

We use cookies to personalize our content, to auto-login to our website and to improve your experience when using it. Cookies used for the essential operation of the site (authorization, language setting or user-security) have already been set. To find out more about the cookies we use and how to delete them, see our privacy policy.

I accept cookies from this site.

EU Cookie Directive Module Information