sentix ASR Essentials 24-2014


Macro moves seen as less Bond-supportive

The latest Sentix survey underlines the ongoing improvement in sentiment towards equity markets (see Page 3), set against a less upbeat view on European bonds. While the past week has seen medium-term sentiment readings for Bunds tick a little higher, they remain well down from their May high-point, even as Bund prices have remained firm. This caution chimes with other readings that also indicate that survey participants view economic developments and inflation as having become less bond-supportive in the medium-term (Charts 2 and 3, page 2). Investors' caution on European Bonds may in part be reflecting changing opinion on the macro backdrop, and its implications for Bonds. 

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sentix ASR Essentials 26-2014


Investors are polls apart on Equities compared to Bonds

The latest sentix survey points to a widening gap between investor opinion on equities and bonds. In the case of sentiment towards the near-term prospects for both assets, survey readings are running at relatively neutral levels. However, a gap is emerging in terms of medium-term expectations, which tend to not only be driven by price and emotions, but also by valuation. While survey respondents are becoming more upbeat about the six month outlook for global equity indices (see Charts 2 and 6), sentiment towards bonds is weakening (Chart 3). Even as Bund futures test two year highs, investor caution is growing towards their prospects in the medium-term.

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sentix ASR Essentials 22-2014


Due to travelling, this week we publish no English commentary. Please check the sentix charts for yourself or read our German research.

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sentix ASR Essentials 21-2014


Oil optimism burning more brightly

The sentix survey indicates that investor sentiment towards Commodities is continuing to improve. At an asset class level, sentiment readings are steadily pulling away from their Q1 lows (see Chart 3, page 2). At a market level, the latest survey revealed an especially sharp improvement in short and medium-term sentiment readings for Crude Oil (Chart 2). The past week has seen investors become markedly more upbeat on the outlook for Oil, albeit near-term survey readings are not yet extended in a historic context. In the case of Commodities overall, the improved tone of sentiment remains consistent with survey participants' more optimistic views on the outlook for Emerging Markets.

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sentix ASR Essentials 20-2014


ECB relieves uncertainty overhanging Equity sentiment

The latest Sentix survey provides a timely view of investor opinion in the wake of the ECB's announcement of a raft of unconventional measures to support the economy and meet its inflation targets. On the Eurozone bond front, investors have become relatively neutral on the near-term outlook for Bunds, but optimism remains high-end on the medium-term. This chimes with survey readings that indicate that survey participants view economic developments as having become less bondbearish in the medium-term (Chart 2, page 2). Perhaps the more notable sentiment impact has been for equities, with medium-term sentiment on EuroSTOXX pulling further away from recent lows, in the wake of a sharp decline in investor uncertainty on the 6M outlook, as gauged by the Neutrality index (Chart 7, page 3).

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