Seasonal stress test

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The summer months of August and September are considered a difficult period on the stock markets. The vacation period in the northern hemisphere not only leads to a lower trading volume, but usually also to greater price fluctuations and, as a result, to price losses.

Since 1990, these two months are the only ones that have brought on average a negative performance for investors in the S&P 500 and DAX. A closer look at the seasonal trends reveals that August is a month with more frequent vola-tile escapades. The negative September performance, on the other hand, is mainly due to the crisis years 2001 and 2008, when the attacks on the World Trade Center (2001) and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (2008) brought the stock markets to their knees.

Compared to the seasonal pattern, August 2020 was much more relaxed, probably due in part to the chronically negative mood of investors in the year of the Corona crisis. However, the negative sentiment was by no means homogeneous in recent times. In the technology sector in particular, we saw a high degree of carelessness and speculative interest at the end of August, which is now reflected in price losses in September.

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sentix Survey results (38-2020)

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Nasdaq signals

The basic strategic confidence of investors, especially in US and Chinese stocks, is rising again this week. Rising basic confidence indicates a growing willingness to buy on the part of investors and is usually somewhat ahead of their positioning behavior. In this context, the divergence between the strategic bias for US technology stocks and positioning behavior is particularly interesting. Is this a buying opportunity?

Further results:

  • Equities: Basic confidence in China on the rise
  • FX: Comeback of USD-JPY?
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Investors refuse the car industry

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Who would have thought it: in the last few weeks, automobile stocks have become the mainstay of the stock market upswing. The premiums that were offered in Germany in particular for the purchase of new vehicles do not seem to be missing their effect.

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sentix Survey results (37-2020)

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TD-indices with positive signals

The number of bullish market participants remains at an unusually low level. At no point during the rally that began in March, which generated price increases of more than 60%, did the number of bulls approach 40% or even 50%. That is unusual. The wall of worry visible in it remains a supporting moment. In addition, there is now a clear movement in basic strategic confidence!

Further results:

  • Bonds: The bias falls again
  • FX and Gold: Bias and positioning under the magnifying glass
  • sentix sector sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

sentix Survey results (36-2020)

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Positive for the autumn

Last week we recommended that from now on you should not drive without an airbag (portfolio insurance)! The week just started showed a volatility surge, both in equities and in other asset classes. There were increased indications of an offensive positioning behavior as well as high overconfidence. Investors are now showing a remarkable reaction!

Further results:

  • FX: Readiness to sell continues to increase for EUR-USD
  • Goldmines equities: Basic confidence rises to 52-week high
  • sentix economic index: Monday 07th September 2020 at 10:30 CET

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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