sentix ASR Essentials 20-2014


ECB relieves uncertainty overhanging Equity sentiment

The latest Sentix survey provides a timely view of investor opinion in the wake of the ECB's announcement of a raft of unconventional measures to support the economy and meet its inflation targets. On the Eurozone bond front, investors have become relatively neutral on the near-term outlook for Bunds, but optimism remains high-end on the medium-term. This chimes with survey readings that indicate that survey participants view economic developments as having become less bondbearish in the medium-term (Chart 2, page 2). Perhaps the more notable sentiment impact has been for equities, with medium-term sentiment on EuroSTOXX pulling further away from recent lows, in the wake of a sharp decline in investor uncertainty on the 6M outlook, as gauged by the Neutrality index (Chart 7, page 3).

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sentix ASR Essentials 19-2014


Investor sentiment still poles apart on Equities, Euro & Bonds

The latest sentix survey provides a unique insight into investor opinion ahead of a potentially big week for Eurozone central bank policy news. On the equity front, survey participants have become more optimistic on the near-term outlook for the EuroSTOXX, but remain deeply pessimistic on the coming 6M (see Chart 2, page 3). Pessimism is also a feature on the Euro versus USD, though survey readings suggest that investors have become modestly less downbeat on the single currency in the past week (Chart 4). On the other side of the sentiment divide, survey readings on bonds are relatively positive, but suggest that medium-term optimism on both Eurozone and US bonds has weakened in the last couple of weeks (Chart 9, page 4). Overall, while the sentiment gap between Eurozone equities, bonds and FX has narrowed in recent days, medium-term survey readings remain poles apart.

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sentix ASR Essentials 18-2014


Deep investor pessimism on EUR/USD persists

The latest sentix survey underlines that while survey participants have become a little less downbeat on the medium-term prospects for European equities, they remain deeply pessimistic on the Eurozone currency. Medium-term sentiment readings on EUR/USD are running at historic extremes (Chart 3, page 2), while pessimism on the near-term prospects for Euro versus USD is also becoming relatively extended in a historic context (Chart 4). In short, Sentix survey participants remain deeply pessimistic on the Euro versus USD in both the near and medium-term.

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sentix ASR Essentials 17-2014


Caution fails to curb commodity-related Sector revival

The latest sentix survey indicates that investors remain highly upbeat on the medium-term outlook for Eurozone bonds and pessimistic on the EuroSTOXX. Indeed, this caution is finding echoes in their equity sector views. Additional monthly survey questions revealed improving sentiment towards defensive sectors such as Healthcare and Food & Beverages, set against deteriorating sentiment towards Financials and cyclicals such as Autos, Construction and Industrials (see Chart 2, page 2). However, while sentiment has tilted onto a more defensive bias, it appears that not all cyclical sectors are the same in sentiment terms. As yet, the revival in sentiment towards sectors such as Energy and Basic Resources, which had been prey to deep pessimism in early-2014, remains on track. Heightened caution

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