sentix Survey results (39-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 27 September 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Sentiment with contrary signals

We are repeating our chart from the previous week, as the constellation depicted there, negative Nasdaq positioning and further increasing basic confidence, has strengthened once again. Tech shares were already able to buck the general trend in the past week. The sentix data constellation indicates that this should continue to be the case in the coming weeks.

Further results:

• Equities: Professionals gain basic strategic confidence
• Precious metals: Silver with all-time low in TD-Index
• sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Seasonal stress test

Written by Manfred Hübner | 22 September 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

The summer months of August and September are considered a difficult period on the stock markets. The vacation period in the northern hemisphere not only leads to a lower trading volume, but usually also to greater price fluctuations and, as a result, to price losses.

Since 1990, these two months are the only ones that have brought on average a negative performance for investors in the S&P 500 and DAX. A closer look at the seasonal trends reveals that August is a month with more frequent vola-tile escapades. The negative September performance, on the other hand, is mainly due to the crisis years 2001 and 2008, when the attacks on the World Trade Center (2001) and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers (2008) brought the stock markets to their knees.

Compared to the seasonal pattern, August 2020 was much more relaxed, probably due in part to the chronically negative mood of investors in the year of the Corona crisis. However, the negative sentiment was by no means homogeneous in recent times. In the technology sector in particular, we saw a high degree of carelessness and speculative interest at the end of August, which is now reflected in price losses in September.

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sentix Survey results (38-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 20 September 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Nasdaq signals

The basic strategic confidence of investors, especially in US and Chinese stocks, is rising again this week. Rising basic confidence indicates a growing willingness to buy on the part of investors and is usually somewhat ahead of their positioning behavior. In this context, the divergence between the strategic bias for US technology stocks and positioning behavior is particularly interesting. Is this a buying opportunity?

Further results:

• Equities: Basic confidence in China on the rise
• FX: Comeback of USD-JPY?
• sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

Investors refuse the car industry

Written by Manfred Hübner | 16 September 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

Who would have thought it: in the last few weeks, automobile stocks have become the mainstay of the stock market upswing. The premiums that were offered in Germany in particular for the purchase of new vehicles do not seem to be missing their effect.

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sentix Survey results (37-2020)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 13 September 2020
Posted in sentix Weekly

TD-indices with positive signals

The number of bullish market participants remains at an unusually low level. At no point during the rally that began in March, which generated price increases of more than 60%, did the number of bulls approach 40% or even 50%. That is unusual. The wall of worry visible in it remains a supporting moment. In addition, there is now a clear movement in basic strategic confidence!

Further results:

• Bonds: The bias falls again
• FX and Gold: Bias and positioning under the magnifying glass
• sentix sector sentiment

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)