sentix ASR Essentials 05-2018

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Inflation expectations bashing bunds sentiment

While investors have become pessimistic on the near-term outlook for equities in the past week, this caution pales in comparison to the deep pessimism evident on bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. A lot of pessimism is baked in bunds, with sentiment readings falling towards the low end of their historic range and near-term neutrality levels close to 2-year lows. Monthly survey questions on ‘themes’ underline the bearish sentiment role being played by inflation expectations. Inflation data are therefore worth watching in the coming weeks: any unexpectedly benign EZ releases could challenge current deep bund pessimism. See Page 2 for charts.

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