sentix ASR Essentials 08-2018


Mind the big strategic bias gap between Gold and Oil

The latest sentix survey underlines the large gap that remains in terms of investors’ medium-term strategic bias on Gold compared to Crude oil. This in part reflects investors’ increasingly downbeat view on the outlook for oil, with survey readings now close to historic lows. However, the unusually large gap is also consistent with this year’s dollar weakness. On this front, it is notable that in recent weeks optimism on Gold has begun to recede as sentiment on USD/JPY has reversed from lows. Gold sentiment may be further tarnished if the dollar’s revival continues. It could also challenge investors’ polarised views on the medium-term outlook for Gold as compared to oil. See charts 2-4, p2.

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