sentix Survey results (32-2019)

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Surprisingly high confidence in bonds

The global bond markets are showing extraordinary dynamism. Since 12 July, interest rates for 10-year Bunds have fallen by 35bp. This development is driven by an extraordinarily high basic conviction among investors, which is based, among other things, on the deep conviction that further ECB interest rate cuts are to be expected. There were similar developments in 2014 and 2016, but this "perception of value" is surprising in view of negative interest rates up to a term of 30 years. How deep will the coming recession be?

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