The shock is followed by demolition
07 April 2026
Posted in
sentix Economic News
Immediately following the outbreak of the Iran War, initial signs of uncertainty began to emerge in the first-mover index in early March. Just four weeks later, a massive slump has now followed: the sentix Economic Sen-timent Index for April 2026 shows a significant decline. The sharp drop in expectations is weighing particularly heavily, pulling the overall index for the eurozone down considerably. Investors are increasingly recognising that the risk of another recession is coming back into focus. Germany, too, is recording clear declines, with expecta-tions at their lowest level since autumn 2024. The picture is similar globally: both established and emerging economies are under pressure, with global expectations falling to levels last seen in spring 2025.
Headlines of the month
- Immediately after the outbreak of the Iran War, an initial shock reaction was already evident in the ‘first mover’ at the beginning of March. Four weeks later, the crash follows: the sentix economic index slumps significantly in April 2026. The overall index for the eurozone loses 16.1 points, driven by a veritable collapse in economic expectations, which fall by 19.0 points. Investors realise: the issue of ‘recession’ is back on the agenda.
- The German economy also takes a severe hit: The sentix Overall Economic Index falls by 15.6 points to -27.7 points. Economic expectations drop to -16.8 points, their lowest level since September 2024.
- A sharp downturn is also evident globally: investors expect significant economic headwinds across all regions of the world. This applies to established economic regions just as much as to the recently emerging markets. The sentix Global Aggregate has fallen by a substantial 13.8 points to -2.9 points. Global expectations have reached their lowest level since April 2025 at -6.6 points
sentix Eco Report Euro area
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