Mixture of rubber band, medicinal herbs & paralysis reminds of 2011

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Mixture of rubber band, medicinal herbs & paralysis reminds of 2011

Do you remember summer 2011? Back then, economic indicators and the stock market went their separate ways for many months. Within a few trading days, the whole thing turned into a summer crash. In 2019, too, such a gap opened up - more than ever.

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Downturn gains speed

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The pressure on the economic front is increasing noticeably. The current assessment and expectations are falling to their knees, and 6-month expectations for the Euro area are falling by 7 points to -20 points. This is the lowest value since August 2012!

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sentix Survey results (31-2019)

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Bargain hunters, where are you?

With a bear surplus of 35 percentage points, the sentiment for US equities reflects strongly frightened investors. We measure a 52-week low in the sentiment barometer (inverted presentation). At the same time, the P/C ratio is also starting to rise. The measured fear is an indication that we are heading for a temporary market low. However, a return of US equities to the bull market seems impossible. The reaction in the strategic bias (not shown) is too weak for this.

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High risks with gold - entry only after consolidation

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High risks with gold - entry only after consolidation

With gold, we are currently measuring a clearly tense risk constellation. The overall risk index for gold amounts to -1.13 standard deviations.

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Risk of contagion continues to decrease

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In Euroland, summer rest begins. Following the European elections and the filling of government positions in the EU, Italy has also recently brought some relief. This is reflected in the Euro Break-up Index, which at 8.9 points once again falls below the 10 percent threshold. The easing is even more visible in the index, which measures the risk of contagion. This one marks a new three-year low.

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