Relaxed mood test before the European elections

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In the penultimate sentiment test before the European elections, the investors surveyed by sentix show that they are still relatively relaxed with regard to the stability of the Eurozone. The Euro break-up index for the euro area fell by slightly more than 1% to 8.98%. The sub-index for Italy also declined slightly.

The turmoil surrounding Brexit, which was initially postponed by several months, and the forthcoming elections to the European Parliament are currently rolling over to investors as "non-events". This was already evident in the sentix Policy Barometer, which showed a decreasing perception of political issues as risk factors. In fact, this is now having an impact on the Euro Break-up Index, which is falling to just under 9%. This calmness of investors is also reflected in the country indices. Italy is still the country that investors believe is most likely to threaten the stability of the Euro-Zone at the moment. But here, too, at 7.2%, we measure a value 0.5% percentage points lower than in the previous month.

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Headline Index Euro area and Sub-index Italy

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Headline Index Euro area and Sub-index Italy

The former problem child Greece disappears more and more from the consciousness of the investors. At 2.9%, the Greek subindex is at an all-time low! All other country indices are randomly quoted at less than one percent. The next EBI survey will take place immediately before the European elections and will therefore not yet be able to reflect in-vestor reactions to the election results. This will only be possible with the data from June.

Background

The sentix Euro Breakup Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Breakup Index can be found on http://ebr.sentix.de.

This month’s reading of 8.98% means that currently, this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012 and touched its low at 6.3% in April, 2018.

The current poll in which more than 1.000 institutional and retail investors participated was conducted from April 25st to April 27th, 2019.

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