Relief in times of trouble


The sentix Euro Break-up Index (EBI) has surprisingly fallen to 16.7 points in March. This reflects the first reduction in Eurozone skepticism since six months ago. Risk reduction has been propelled by a more bullish view on Greece’s perceived current situation.

The sentix Euro Break-up Index slides by 3.2 points to currently 16.7 points in March. Hence, the risk of a potential break of the symbolic 20 points mark has been contained for now. In the past, EBI values above 20 points were suc-ceeded by subsequent crisis summits of the Eurozone community. Furthermore, investors review the current risk of contagion lower than a month ago. Under consideration of the latest developments on the European continent, in-vestors communicate an impression that the public solidarity messages of the Eurozone leaders are credible, thus re-ducing the risk of Eurozone break-up. A positive Signal that benefits especially battered Greece. (EBI reduction by -4.4 points).

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However, risks have not vanished yet. Comparisons of member countries’ EBI values with their 10-year government bond yields reveal that Portuguese and Greek yields are still too high. Investors willing to take risks could exploit an opportunity.


The sentix Euro Break-up Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Break-up Index can be found on:
This month’s reading of 16.7% means that currently this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012, and touched its low at 7.6% in July 2014.
The current poll in which 1014 individual and institutional investors participated was conducted from March 24 to March 26, 2016.

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