Situation under control

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While the euro countries continue to grapple with the Corona pandemic and believe that the pandemic situation can only be brought about under the control of a second "lockdown", the ECB is finding it easier to organise euro cohe-sion. The sentix Euro Break-up Index remains at a low level.

The pandemic situation in Europe is a challenge for governments and a considerable burden for citizens and the economy. This is a serious challenge for the cohesion of our societies. The situation is somewhat simpler for the ECB. At least, investors do not currently see any major risk that the crisis will put the euro-zone in serious danger. This is probably also related to the ECB's clear positioning. At the last ECB meeting, President Christine Lagarde made it clear that the ECB would do everything in its power to support the "next generation EU" project to the best of its ability. To cushion the consequences of the current economic crisis, she also held out the prospect of further monetary easing. This is what investors like to hear and with it the sentix Euro Break-up Index for the euro zone at a low level of just under 5.1%.

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Euroland Overall index and sub-index Italy

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Euroland Overall index and sub-index Italy

The situation is no different with regard to the likelihood of individual countries leaving. Italy continues to have the highest rate, at around 3.3%.

Background

The sentix Euro Breakup Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Breakup Index can be found on https://ebi.sentix.de

This month’s reading of 5.1% means that currently, this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012 and touched its low at 4.7% in Oktober, 2020.

The current poll in which more than 1.000 institutional and retail investors participated was conducted from November 26th to November 28th, 2020.

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