Things remain calm

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At the beginning of September, the situation in the euro zone is calm. The sentix Euro Break-up Index remains at 5.7%. The sub-index for Italy is also unremarkable.

If there is nothing moving to report, at least not about investors' assessment of the stability of the euro zone, then we can be brief. The sentix Euro Break-up Index is practically unchanged and is quoted at 5.75%, close to its historic lows. A break-up of the euro zone is therefore currently no threat to investors. The sub-indices for Italy and other countries are also behaving inconspicuously.

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Euro area Overall index and sub-index Italy

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Euro area Overall index and sub-index Italy

The relatively largest changes are measured in the risk index for the risk of infection, which has fallen again to 30%.

Background

The sentix Euro Breakup Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Breakup Index can be found on https://ebi.sentix.de

This month’s reading of 5.7% means that currently, this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012 and touched its low at 5.205% in November, 2019.

The current poll in which more than 1.000 institutional and retail investors participated was conducted from August 27th to August 29th, 2020.

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