Uncertainty over Italy remains

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On the face of it, investors' concerns about the Euro-Zone's continued existence remain stable. The sentix Euro Break-up Index rose from 8.8% to 9.8%. But from the perspective of the investors surveyed by sentix, the probability of a break-up of the Euro zone is only at the average level of the last 18 months. In detail, the focus remains on Italy.

The fundamental picture that the sentix Euro Break-up Index gives of the stability of the Eurozone has hardly changed in recent weeks. Although the probability of the euro zone collapsing has risen slightly by one percentage point, but this does not lead to the conclusion of a new phase of uncertainty. The current value for Euroland of 9.8% is at the average level of the last 18 months. On a positive note, the current Brexit discussion has had no negative impact whatsoever on the stability of the euro zone. On the contrary, one can get the impression that investors are convinced of a stronger political will to hold the rest of the EU together "at all costs" in view of the drama surrounding UK's withdraw-al from the EU.

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Headline Index Euro area and Sub-index Italy

sentix Euro Break-up Index: Headline Index Euro area and Sub-index Italy


Italy stands out as a problem child in the detailed examination of the individual countries. The sub-index climbed to 7.7%. Greece, a country in crisis for many years, on the other hand, with an EBI value of 3.3%, plays hardly any role as a candidate for concern at present. The index for the risk of contagion is correspondingly low.

Background

The sentix Euro Breakup Index is published on a monthly basis and was launched in June 2012. Its poll is running for two days around the fourth Friday of each month. Results are regularly published on the following Tuesday morning. Survey participants may choose up to three euro-zone member states of which they think they will quit the currency union within the next twelve months. Further details on the sentix Euro Breakup Index can be found on http://ebr.sentix.de

This month’s reading of 9.8% means that currently, this percentage of all surveyed investors expect the euro to break up within the next twelve months. The EBI has reached its high at 73% in July 2012 and touched its low at 6.3% in April, 2018.

The current poll in which more than 1.000 institutional and retail investors participated was conducted from February 21st to February 23rd, 2019.

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