sentix Survey results (37-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 14 September 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

The negative sentiment divergence persists

With a slight delay, the AAII index now also reflects the decline in bullish sentiment on the US stock market. Such a clear disconnect between sentiment and price must be viewed as negative sentiment divergence. This type of divergence regularly occurs before a market peak. In contrast, sentiment towards gold is excellent, as is the underlying confidence in gold mining stocks.

Further results

• FX: Renewed overconfidence signal for EUR-JPY
• Gold: In high spirits
• sentix sector sentiment

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The next blow for the eurozone

Written by Patrick Hussy | 07 September 2025
Posted in sentix Economic News

The new September data from the sentix economic index dashes hopes of an economic recovery. The overall value for the eurozone slipped by 5.5 points to -9.2. Both the current situation and future expectations are dete-riorating noticeably. This means that economic concerns are returning in full force. In Germany in particular, the downward trend is intensifying once again. The overall index lost 9.4 points and fell to -22.1 points there. There can therefore be no talk of a sustained improvement in sentiment in the largest economy in the eurozone. There are now also clear signs of a slowdown in the USA. Expectations have fallen to -10.8 points, while the current sit-uation is also showing signs of erosion at -0.3 points. The Asia region, including Japan, is currently proving to be a stabilising factor in the global picture. The data here remains comparatively robust and is making a decisive con-tribution to maintaining the pace of global economic growth for the time being.

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sentix Survey results (36-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 07 September 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Unusual stability thanks to many short-term stock bears

There continues to be a significant discrepancy between the attitudes of investors surveyed by the AAII in the US and sentix investors with regard to equities. The sentix data shows a much higher number of neutral investors. Only in 2006 were we able to measure similarly high differences. The number of short-term bears, on the other hand, is similarly high, and this fact is currently lending the market its unusual stability.

Further results

• Bonds: Basic strategic confidence is being undermined
• Silver: Euphoric mood
• sentix Economic Index: Monday, Sep. 8, 2025, 10:30 a.m. CEST

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sentix Survey results (35-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 31 August 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

Equity sentiment remains subdued

Investor sentiment toward equities remains negative. Over the course of the week, we have also measured a reduction in portfolio risks. Investors therefore appear to have a fair amount of respect for the traditionally difficult month of September. This could lend the stock market a stability that it rarely exhibits at this time of year. There are also interesting sentiment signals for USD-JPY and gold.

Further results

• Equities: Chinese stocks show signs of risk
• Gold: Strategic bias remains high, but positioning does not
• USD-JPY: Interest rate differentials weigh on strategic confidence

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sentix Survey results (34-2025)

Written by Manfred Hübner | 24 August 2025
Posted in sentix Weekly

The bull market in equities is not spreading to sentiment

The stock markets, led by the US markets, have so far defied their seasonal pattern in a remarkable way. There are no signs of a summer slump as yet. However, investors remain cautious. The price gains are not translating into investor sentiment. In our view, this is cautionary investor behavior. The outlook for gold and silver, on the other hand, is better.

Further results

• Gold: Stable underlying confidence is positive
• EUR-JPY: High overconfidence, as in 2007
• sentix investor positioning in equities, bonds and others assets

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