Things are looking up again!

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The economic indicators manage a turnaround in the month of November. The overall index for the euro zone rises for the first time since July 2021, while the current situation indicators remain in a correction trend. On the other hand, the expectations figures increased by 5.3 points. For Germany, the overall index stagnates once again, with the assessment of the situation even dropping significantly by 6.2 points. Fortunately, the expecta-tions component also increased by 5.3 points. Overall, this confirms our thesis for the global economy that the recent slowdown is a "mid-cycle slowdown". Economic expectations are rising sharply, especially in the USA, but also in Asia.

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sentix Survey results (45-2021)

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Euphoric mood in equities

Within a month, the mood on the stock markets has fundamentally changed. We measure a sentiment that has rarely been reached before - last in 2019! In the seasonally bullish phase of the year, such sentiment is less risky. But the current tear-down in underlying strategic confidence sends a reminder. In the short term, the upswing will be slowed either way.

Further results:

  • Bonds: Turning bias
  • FX: EUR-USD bias under pressure
  • sentix Economic index: Monday, 8th November 21 on 10:30h CET
Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

sentix Survey results (44-2021)

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Trick or Treat

Such a clear break in the crude oil bias should soon have consequences for oil prices. Over the past five weeks, the strategic bias has shed 24 percentage points. Both the absolute (negative) level and the rate of change of the indicator suggest declining crude oil prices. This should take some of the pressure off central banks to act. The interest rate market could benefit from this.

Further results:

  • Equities: Halloween party
  • Bonds: Trick or Treat
  • Crude oil: Bias slides
  • Precious metals: Silver picks up

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

sentix Survey results (43-2021)

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The air for black gold is getting thin

The topic of inflation fears is pushing investors out of their bond exposures. This can be observed for euro bonds as well as for U.S. bonds. From a risk assessment perspective, this seems to mean that the worst is over, especially as the crude oil price is also signaling a high-risk situation and relief could be on the way. For the equity side, we also measure high investment levels. Now the professionals have also bought in and are gearing up for a positive fourth quarter of 2021.

Further results:

  • Equities: China turns up
  • Precious metals: gold and silver fight back
  • sentix investor positioning in equities and bonds

Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

sentix Survey results (42-2021)

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Sentiment impulse

The number of bulls for US equities, as measured by sentix sentiment, has jumped in the last two weeks. This is likely to dampen the price outlook in the short term. However, a trend reversal is not on the agenda, as this increase is part of a bullish sentiment impulse that suggests further price gains on an 8-10 week horizon.

Further results:

  • Gold mines: Better times ahead
  • Precious metals: Strategic bias continues to rise
  • sentix styles - Investor preferences & behavior
Click here for the full report (requires a sentix registration)

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